Catskills - Sullivan County - Ulster County Real Estate -- Catskill Farms Journal

I started this business in Sullivan County in 2002 and continue to build in this county to this day.  Currently we have quite a bit going, and the county has always been a good source of business for me.  Up until Covid, I literally had next to zero competition because the selling price points were just uninteresting to most people - and I use the word ‘uninteresting’ in sort of the English understatement sort of way - there was little to no way to make money on new construction in Sullivan County (SuCo) - the sales prices just did not support them.  SuCo had a ceiling of around $425,000, and if you got that you were really doing something right.  The real target was low $300’s. 

I guess one of the reasons I’ve been able to hang around so long in this risky business is I honed my whole game in one of the most unforgiving business environments a lot of us have/had ever seen.  There’s a saying if you can do it in NYC you can do it anywhere, but back in the day, the business environment of SuCo made NYC look like child’s play.  

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What a business landscape/environment like that means is you have to be creative with your product, you have to very cost-efficient, and you have to be constantly pivoting with your price points and product.  I had an ‘advantage’ in this because I showed a lot of homes back in the day (after 2008 with my son in his child’s seat) and I would always invite the clients in my car, and since it’s SuCo, with big distances separating everything, I would get to know the people, but more importantly, I would learn of their changing tastes, their preferences, and other market insights that to a careful listener would be a lot of information to incorporate into my business plan.  And I was a careful listener indeed because I frankly couldn’t afford to go out of business because I had so much debt my life would have ruined forever with that big black stain of bankruptcy.

I learned all sorts of stuff - and always had the modesty to immediately incorporate any valuable market insights into my product.  And when I say “the modesty”, I just mean I didn’t let ‘my plan’ interfere with ‘the reality’.  Many times people are committed to their ‘plan’ and feel insecure about changing it because that would mean they were wrong to some degree in the first place, and somehow being wrong was a ding to their credibility.  Me, I was too insecure about too many other business things (ie survival) to worry about ‘being wrong’ about the exact details of my business plan.  I never started building log homes, or modular homes, or ‘going green’ or 100 other ‘ideas’ that crossed my desk, but I did constantly refine my product line and product process - so I stayed in my lane, but incorporated as many inputs as I could.  Information was everywhere, you just had to be listening, but as importantly, you had to have a business product that was able to be tweaked and refined.

I had that, and was constantly adding to the line up.   Farmhouses, then Cottages, Barns, then Moderns, then Mini’s, then different counties.  Each insight, expansion, and risk-embracing pivot allowed us a little more diversity, which translates into a little more fortitude and dexterity which translates into a little more chance of survival if you experience an international real estate and financial system collapse when your pants were fully down (2008), 12 long years of a sort of morbid housing market, the Pandemic, the Inflation, The Competition (because of higher price points).  I benefited over and over from information and the ability and willingness to pivot.

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5 of the 12 homes we got going currently.

Not many people make it an entire lifetime in speculating in real estate without hitting some sort of hurdle that tosses you into bankruptcy at least once - could be something outside your control like 'the economy' or could just be some land investment that didn't pan out. It's the old adage that there are two types of motorcycle riders - those who have crashed, and those that will in the future. On both accounts, (I was an avid and reckless rider when I was young), I have bucked the traditional wisdom. Since my risk-taking is much less these days, and i don't ride motorcycles anymore, looks like I stand half a chance to buck it for good - which is fine with me.

Our first big snow storm of the year, and it was a picture perfect one at that.  And the timing was fantastic too, starting mid-afternoon Saturday, ending by Early Sunday.  Plenty of time to enjoy, cleanup and get back to work with minimal disruption for such a large snowstorm.  Here in NE PA we got 12” of pure light white powder, and throughout the Catskills that much or more.  That’s a significant storm.

And it turns out, now that it is Tuesday morning, we didn’t miss a beat.  Monday morning full steam ahead with nary a delayed delivery or logistical 

Finished Barbara Kingsolver’s Demon Copperhead, and enjoyed it thoroughly.  Set pretty much current, taking place in Applachia, it tracks and storytells everything from the opioid epidemic’s impacts on the youth of these parts, to the general and commonplace depiction and caricature of these folks, to foster homes, HS football stardom, to extended families to broken families.  It’s an American tale, with a nod to Dicken’s and his concern for the underserved children of society’s underbelly. Pics of my high school play below.

It occurred to me I had a successful Christmas season with a litany of activities with family and friends that came off pretty good.  Starting with my annual NYC trip with my son and his brahs, a super fun dinner party where even my mom and brother made the trip up, a trip to the Biltmore in Asheville NC for the whole Christmas holiday and then a quietly productive pre-New Years’ week when all the other mice were sleeping.

2024 is shaping up to be a year of finely honed execution - the sales are in place, the team is in place and experienced, most permitting or municipal interactions are behind me - so it’s just a day by day task by task exercise of execution and supervision.  At this point, if we didn’t sell another house all year we’d be ok, and the chances of that are nearly zero.

Sometimes it hard to remember some effort or task that didn’t have any immediate impacts, and the results are harder to see because the efforts were preventative rather than triage, and last week was a good test and example of that - our main finance woman was unexpectedly out of the office the whole week, but we didn’t miss a step because we now have a part-time back-up book-keeper who could keep the whole thing moving forward, get our bills in, pay our vendors.  That redundancy was what I was seeking to insert into the organization so we weren’t thrown into chaos everytime life happened to someone in our employ - and it was tested and worked perfectly.  That’s progress of the most professional and important nature.

An amazing thing happened in Highland NY (Sullivan County) with the election of John P as supervisor. I started the effort to oust an 'old boys club' member back in 2015 and got roundly pummeled for my efforts, but it opened the eyes of people better qualified  (from a disposition standpoint) and similarly concerned individuals and 9 yrs later, we got it done. Lead from the front - you don't always get the cheers, but you do some of the hardest and most important work laying the groundwork for change or action.

The real and only question is - am I the only one in the world with an updated blog?

Insurance rates have skyrocketed, with home insurance really catching my eye.  At first you think ‘wow, price gouging’, but then after a little bit of education you realize that all the things you read about and know about firsthand (construction costs, weather damage) impact the cost of home repair after an insurance claim, and then it becomes more clear that the rates increases, while hard on the pocketbook, are just a micro example of the big picture impacting the individual picture.

Did two more deals this week.  Yeah, that’s right, we rock.

I’m working on my keyboard shortcuts.  Just seems like for all the typing I do, I should have a better mastery of some simple shortcuts for bullet points, select all, etc.. The problem I’m finding that other than copy and paste which seem universal, google docs, mac, word all use different ones (which Mac testing the real dexterity have the time with 3 or 4 finger arrangements - not much of a shortcut at that point imo).

I’m thinking about what I hope to accomplish in 2024 - personally and professionally.

One for sure is random consumption.  The ‘buy now think later’ Amazon approach.  When you spend $40k a week buying stuff at work, it’s hard to calibrate what is wasteful and not in your personal life (typically under a few $100) but 1, it adds up, and 2, if you don’t need it you don’t need it.

So, so far I’ve refrained from buying a new car - was thinking about trading in my Mercedes 400 Coupe for a Outback Forester, Wildness Edition.  I love my Benz, and while it’s called a coupe and hard to see from the outside, it’s actually full-sized on the inside with 2 large and comfortable seats in the back - getting in and out can be challenging, depending on your age - but once in, comfy and roomy indeed.  So not buying the car was a win. The 2018 Benz with 45k miles is a beautiful car with a lot of zip.

Then I was also thinking about buying some survival stuff.  I mean, my house is run by solar, and I have solar battery backup, so I’m pretty good on the housing front.  I get plenty of sun to keep things charged and probably actually don’t use a ton of electric in the whole scheme of things - though the pool and pool heater are real hogs when you keep the water at 85.

With the new Obama-produced Leave the World Behind and a proliferation of tik tok threads talking about spread of the middle east conflict as well as the silent army coming in from the border, I seem to have this idea of ‘preparation’ in my consciousness.  But with the Tik Tok at least, you have to be really careful because the more you show interest in something - even if it just by watching the whole post - the more they show things like that, so you can inadvertently start creating your own reality that may not match reality.   I think that happened to a lot of Jan 6th actors - your world becomes your interests, and your interests become your world - and you forget that it’s just feeding you what you want to see and leaving out the rest, and the fact that social media prospers through a web of fear and outrage (and heartwarming dog and horse posts).  But it doesn’t hurt to be prepared - some water, some food in storage to last a few months, some guns and flashlights.

The Tik Tok, which I truly enjoy, has also been showing me a lot of middle east stuff, and again, it’s hard to know whether it’s showing me the things it is showing to me because I’m sympathetic, or because all the stuff I’m seeing is actually a true representation of the temperature of the public opinion of the situation.  Is it my reality, or is it reality?  I’m glad I’m a well-read person for times like this, so I least I have a fighting chance to make some honest sense of the propaganda wars thrust at me daily.

My point is I didn’t buy the guns (I don’t and have never owned guns, though got nothing against them), to food or the other stuff that would have pushed me over a $1000 or $2000. So another win!

No big holiday vacation - money saving win.

Bought a friend a $400 vintage leather jacket - high style, think bomber meets chanel meets 40’s - she found in Paris yesterday.

It’s just like everyday you spend or you don’t and it becomes a habit.  So for January, since I already cut out the alcohol having had a total of 3 glasses of Malbec since last March, I’m going to see if I can go cold turkey on buying things that don’t need to be bought just then.  You know it’s bad when you literally have no idea what’s in the Amazon box and don’t care enough to open it, but pleasantly surprised a few weeks later when you do open it.

I’ll tell you what really got crazy - Keihl’s Silk Groom - a nice product for wiry hair.  That used to be $40, then it was unavailable, and now is $90. Yes $90.

Another year of inflation - concrete up 10%, sheetrock up 10%, kitchens up 10%.  I think at this point, suppliers know - after 3 years of tedious cost increases - our ability as businesspeople to be outraged is fatigued so now they don’t actually need a raw material or transportation reason to increase prices.   It’s like an industry, or country-wide collusion between all suppliers of everything - raise the prices.  Supply and demand should come into play sooner or later, but I guess at least for now, demand I guess is still stronger than supply - though if everyone is colluding to keep prices high, at least in the short run, suppliers can articifially buck the silent hand of supply and demand - but typically when that happens, when the inevitable market forces do take back control, the correction is vicious and merciless.

We shall see.   There is nothing in my life that can be derailed by outside forces anymore - can make my life more complicated, more anxiety, but no one is taking away what I’ve earned anymore.  That type of risk-taking is just off the table, forever.  Double Down Petersheim is a thing of the past, though it was a good and trusted friend for 20 years.  

Looks like I might have to edit the sales victory lap from yesterday's post, with one couple getting cold feet (I know they are reading so this is sort a pyche-ops thread), but we've actually seen that a lot in 2023 - people want to pull the trigger, but just can't or change their minds or outwit themselves with fear and rationalization. From our end it's pretty simple at this point - we feel bad for those who out-think themselves, and know it's just a matter of time till the next family comes along, though it is a bit bruising with the emotional highs and bubble-bursting of "we'll take" followed up by 'we changed our minds'. I'm seeing this from people who have been looking forever more than new people to the market - like the looking itself is the exercise. I'm also hearing the same from realtors - and that's why 2nd and 3rd runner ups on bidding processes are getting the homes more and more as the frontrunner who came in all hot fades away.

I've always found it really helpful to have more big setbacks than fewer on the sales- if you don't have enough you forgot to be thankful and gracious for those that do come onboard. And if I've said it once I've said it 100x since I've been blogging - over-confidence has been the death of many a business.

Just did a google doc 'select all' , 'copy/paste' shortcut with wild success.

I think I’ve decided that Mondays are the best days for Christmas and New Years Holidays.  Gives you that natural and extended weekend without ruining the whole week.  Now that we’ve staffed up, it’s hard to give out non-work days with abandon - just too expensive.

Geez, what started as a pretty good run of sales has now turned into a quasi-tsunami.   I know a lot of people read several blog posts at once so they sort of run together, but my efforts of composing and posting them seem like extended timeframes between with me having little memory of what I wrote just the post before.  I have no doubt I linger on certain topics before moving on, since that’s how I figure things out - toss them around in my mind until resolution arises.

I’ve probably been writing about some recent sales but with another $3.3m in just the last 10 days (merry christmas to me) things are really looking like 2021 all over again for us - and this time only us.  In 2020-2022, anybody could make money - there was land available, there were subcontractors available, there were buyers galore.

Now the buyers still exist, but they have regained their heads and are returning to value - which is fine with me, since that is what we do.  We didn’t catch the highest price wave like some souls did, but we keep plugging along and the tortoise and hare story couldn’t be more apt for our 20 year journey.  Our prices don’t go down, and only increase proportionally to our costs - and that seems to work out pretty well.

I often say I attribute a lot of my success to my ability to communicate and walk in another’s shoes and see it from their perspective.  This is true, but I’ve also come to see where it isn’t true - and one of those voids is realizing how some of our clients don’t realize, or perhaps don’t care, the blood we sweat on their behalf.  Coming from a blue collar upbringing, my inherent respect for my team's effort is just woven into every conversation I have, but that’s not true for many of our clients who perhaps have never actually had direct contact with an electrician, framer, plumber, sheetrocker and have little to know view into their workdays and lives.  So, I find myself with half a chip on my shoulder whenever a client ‘disrepects’ the team, since their many times super human efforts are so plain for me to see.  It’s the nature of the business, and it’s a bit irreconcilable.

That’s why when you really have a MasterClass client like those in the home we just finished in Hillsdale just south of Hudson NY, or over in Stone Ridge, or Up in North Branch, it’s just really refreshing.

Then I proceed to ask myself why I’m such a baby - all in all, we have tremendously grateful and resourceful clients who combine their talents with ours to create some of the best and sustainable value in the Catskills.  And this is entering its 3rd decade.

I listen to a lot of personal finance guru Dave Ramsey, and I agree with a lot and disagree with a lot.  There is the counter-Ramsey effort out there, pointing out that with home prices at historic highs and college costing 5x what it cost just 15 years ago, that his ideas are simplistic and dangerous and insulting.  I agree with him and his detractors.   He’s opened my eyes a lot to the the power of debt-less living and some of the macro marketing and corporate negative influences that we have normalized as Americans.  But some I think are very over-simplified, or actually wrong.  

One of them is the idea as a way to avoid auto debt - truly the curse of middle-class wealth building - you should buy they cheapest car you can find.  He has a word for it - a slang for a low-cost embarrassing to drive but affordable car.  Just can’t think of it currently.  But I know for a fact how costly and disruptive car repair and breakdowns can be - I see it among the many tradespeople I work with - so the idea that someone should just go out and buy a beater and take that risk of expensive repairs is really gambling and playing with fire.  It’s oversimplistic, and prone to lead to disaster and setback.  There is no ‘baby step’ progress or ‘debt snow ball’ progress when you can’t get to work and have a $1700 car repair bill on a car that’s worth $2000.