Season transitions and Free Cash flow
The problem with being impatient about winter ending is then you have March, which is a most unfriendly month of teaser nice days, then smack in the face cold, windy wet days. Whenever it dries out just enough to start getting optimistic about progress, bam, it’s gone. And since the sun doesn’t shine and it remains Ireland damp, it stays wet, damp and untraversable for a while. Last night, with the worst possible timing, a Sunday night before the work week, a heavy rain started around 7pm and lasted till 9am this morning.
I’m an AI user, Chatgpt, though the smart set was making me feel guilty for using Chat and not Claude, or something less dominant in the marketplace - like Claude is the new Apple and Chat is Microsoft - unhip, uncool, AI for Facebook users. That’s baloney - it’s a great product and judging by simple login issues with Claude, the elite tastemakers of AI can kiss my ass.
The world is getting interesting, and the impact of gas prices will mean something to someone, though what it is is hard to know for certain. Since I’m getting busy and needed some cash flow/equity investment cushion, I cashed out of a sizable equity (non-retirement) position to infuse into the business for the next wash rinse repeat investment in building homes. I’m thinking this year is shaping up to be a lot more sneaky vibrant than I expected, and to be honest, that’s been true each year for a few years, though last year I wasn’t in a position to take advantage of it.
We’ve gone from Zero to 60 in a few months flat and are eager to get a move on it, as are a lot of our subs and vendors, who have been idling over the winter not at a full stop of course but at less than optimal speed, stressing cash flows with fixed costs and reduced revenues, and especially tricky as you ramp back up. Our big inflows will probably be 3rd and 4th quarter, and that foresight insight is why I moved some money back into the business - to be safe, to not pay the bank interest more than we have to, and to have some dry powder for some opportunities.
Costa Rica is always a prominent choice in ex-pat snowbird living, but Panama is actually the real sleeper of value, from what I’ve been reading.
I just discovered about car dealership client waiting rooms what I already know about airplanes - do not arrive without headphones. Chitchat, beeping and pinging of cell phones, too loud piped in music, an odd TV on somewhere, and the real trigger, someone listening to their phone on speaker phone.
I’m actually doing an interesting task these days - going through my phone and deleting old contacts - who knows what comes next, adding last names to the 14 Johns, Matts, and Erics that make life harder than it should be.
Free chair if anyone is looking.
Time is on my Side
I went to order some swim trunks the other day, and I guess I’m fancy now because a lot of the trunks being offered were nice, and expensive. Like north of $100 expensive, maybe closer to $200. But with a 3 week sojourn to Sardinia, Corsica and some still undefined places, I thought ‘what the heck?’ So I order a pair or two, and work my through the ordering, shipping info, billing info and then they tally up my total, and for the first time in all my purchasing, there is a ‘tariff’ or in this checkout, a ‘duty charge’ that was like $100 for this order - it was coming from Europe and I guess we put a 35% or so tariff on some goods. And in an interesting answer to how macro policies impact individual decisions, I cancelled my order before checking out. Just made the purchase too expensive.
After a cinderella end of season run of Overtime upsets, our local High School got pretty creamed in the sweet 16 of States. The below score wasn't the end of it - Parkland 'exploded' in the 2nd half with nearly perfect long range shooting. Only two good things came of that game - losing saved us from being creamed even worse in the next round, and it brought to an end a fun and exciting season. I don't have anyone on the team, but several of my son's friends play on the team.
I haven’t been following the war too much, other than to see the debate over the dueling narratives in the media and government about whether the news is covering the war results and efforts honestly and accurately. I can’t say in this particular case, but ever since the cover-up of Biden’s decline and the coverage of Israel’s can-hardly-be-called-a-war effort in Gaza, anything is possible. The impact on real estate is unknown for sure, and doubly unknown for my little slice of it, since our buyers and the interest in our homes are not tethered to the traditional tides of demand. Interest rate insensitive to some degree, using reserve cash and not their last dollar to use as a deposit and down payment, purchasing not for relocation but as a discretionary lifestyle choice that very well may be driven by world events and their perception of their safety in the NYC. We are going to know before too long since I have some houses for sale.
This beauty below will be for sale by the end of the month. Really has everything - 30 acres, 4500 sq ft, 2 story garage, views. We will see what the market thinks of it.
We played around with some wallpaper which was fun.
Many times I wonder if I don’t get a little too excited about things that shouldn’t get my attention, but then typically I wind up thinking that’s not the case. The amount of whirling complex problems to solve that come my way on a daily basis is staggering. All with associated financial, employee, municipal, regulatory, client aspects interconnected. Right now, among others of similar stickiness, I’ve nearing the completion of getting service to my two last homes at the Crest - I’ve literally been working on this for 2 years, which is interminable even by Utility standards, which works on its own clock. To keep your cool and keep to the plan while working through some of these big problems is an art, since a wrong word deed or action can set you back in some cases permanently as half the time these decisions and timelines depend on one person doing something to push it along. It reminds me why Schindler spent so much money and time flattering and bribing the Germans when setting up his armaments plant in WWII. Sometimes progress and goals are dependent on a real understanding of what is in your way, and how to remove it successfully.
The house in New Paltz gets great sunlight.
The warm weather last week got us off to a fast start, and it’s fair to say Catskill Farms is positioned to get some serious work done this year. The office team continues to mature into their roles and the field teams are sufficient and motivated. We have 2 spec homes for sale nearly finished, 2 client homes just about done. 2 client homes just getting started, 3 spec homes under construction. We are back to where we used to be - it will be interesting to see where the market is - since even though we are a bit concentrated in one aspect of one industry - building homes for sale - within that sector we are diversified. Different price points, different styles, different counties.
Birding lookout at the Bashakill just down the street from our offices. Nature is coming alive that's for sure.
One of the downsides of firing on all cylinders is the cash flow needed to to such a thing - and when the company and progress slows down like it did this winter, 2 things happen. 1, your bills become less since you are doing less construction, and 2, your cash flow tightens because you are doing less work. So when you start to pick up steam, you also stress your cash flow until reaching cruising altitude where the receivables match the payables. But to say we are pushing the pedal to the metal (not sure if that’s still a saying but back in the day it used to refer to pushing the gas pedal down the whole way to the floor) and we will see what happens. What used to not be true even in the slightest, is very true now - Time is on my Side.
The Blue Fox outside Narrowsburg NY is a fun place to grab dinner and drinks. It's out of the way locale makes it feel a bit lost in time and place and gives it a real 'shake-off-the-cold and grab a whiskey' feel to it.
Spring is springing
I’m sure everyone is not only sick of the weather, but actually sick of me talking about it in my blog too - and the last few days of ice, melt, ice was no fun at all.
We are inching ahead with our spring plans, ready to burst through the earth like a tulip or other like-minded spring plant. Within a week it may be soupy wet and muddy, but winter’s restrictions will be in the rear view mirror, even if it would dare to artic blast us again.
It’s pretty amazing how little chance the snow has versus the sun. Bright rays and some mid-30’s and you can literally watch the snow disappear.
I’ve been waiting for 2 years for electric to one of my homes. Two years is a bit of an exaggeration because that’s when I first applied for electric when we started the house, but 2+ years it has been, and now almost a year with a finished home just waiting on electric. It’s the type of thing you are happy didn’t happen earlier in my career when holding onto a house for the fun of it wouldn’t really fly too long.
Or, maybe the timing would have advantageous like if I was trying to get it up and sold in 2020, then Covid happened, then by the time I had electric house prices doubled but the increased cost of construction didn’t matter since the house was built prior - A guy can dream.
This year my goal is to fully price my homes. Meaning not sell too quick, or early in the marketing campaign. It’s hard to argue with the success of our sales strategy - take good offers everytime, but it’s also hard to argue I’ve left a lot of money on the table by doing so, specifically thinking about at the beginning of 2025, when I had my last two houses in Olivebridge to sell. I was worried about the market, so was (and still am) happy to have sold them, but it was a strong year for real estate in Ulster county so I probably walked away $200k lighter than I could have.
And since I’m picking up this long-awaited post after writing the above paragraphs, we are having a nice spring week with temps touching 70 and dry. I’m running around from job to job to make sure all is moving forward in as straight of a line as possible. Played pickleball on the home court yesterday, first match of the season. Heard some geese coming home high in the sky last night. Watched the water melt and run from all directions.
I have a 3 week trip to Sardinia, Corsica and points still undetermined coming up in May.
Pictures of the Ranch home in New Paltz we just are finishing up.
The long winter slog
The long-awaited blog post after an extended delay is mostly winter-related - plus my friend Eric from G5 Insurance must be too busy with his accomplished daughters to poke me about the lack of posting.
I’ve been busy, in a slow winter way. I guess I’m also a little tired of talking about the weather, which has been a daily slap in the face of cold, snow and what have you. Cold wet winters are very expensive and logistically complex for a construction company with jobs spread out over 4 counties and a wide region. What is true in one area is not true in another. Andrew, our project manager, has had his hands full keeping the job sites open with 3 or 4 different plowing companies which tend to be local in nature.
Trent, our in-house Revit (drafting software) has been busy navigating the various building departments, their changing personnel, requirements and expectations. Our favorite town to build in, Kerhonkson, has gone from business-friendly to anti-business in head-spinning one year time frame, after Catskill Farms building there for over 10 years, and literally dozens if not more homes.
The Town of Rochester would never agree they have now pivoted from a place to do business to a place to avoid, but that’s because the new leadership really doesn’t understand the impacts of their changes, be it personnel or process. But me, as someone who runs a business and has to navigate it, I understand it perfectly well.
It could be a planning board that is looking to obstruct, consciously or unconsciously. It would be a new building inspector who may be looking for 20 page plans of details rather than the 8 pages that has worked across the Hudson Valley for the past 25 years, because from a résume standpoint he looks great with solid experience in a busy town, but culturally bringing expectations that will be very hard for this rural area to achieve.
Savvy Town Supervisors understand a good cultural fit is as important as a good skillset fit. This isn’t Westchester, it’s rural Ulster County, and there are few overlaps in what is actually necessary to successfully build a home when one place is hyper-dense, and the other is hyper-sparse.
The problem with a winter severe enough to slow the construction process is that a lack of construction progress also means a lack of cash flow progress since construction progress is necessary to get financing advances or client payments. And a lot of our costs to run the business happen with or without a lot of construction progress such as payroll, insurance and everything needed to keep the lights on.
On the other hand, we have had the luxury of time to do a lot of office work for these projects that once the weather breaks, we will be not only off to the races, but positioned to pull our scull out in front of the pack.
One thing that is true is that the spring will be busy busy for a lot of subcontractors such as excavators and masons and framers, and that’s when relationships will come in handy so you are able to skip the queue, like buying the Fast Pass when skiing at Killington which allows you to skip the lines, for an extra $75 per day.
New homes going up in New Paltz, Yulan, Narrowsburg, and Kerhonkson.
