Reopening Businesses in the Catskills
I don't think it makes a lot of sense for the news to be positioning this as a conservative v. liberal effort. We all want/need the economy to open back up. It is literally impossible to envision this Pause sustained for a much longer period for many reasons - financial as well as mental health. I can't imagine - actually I can - some of the small urban spaces some of these families are quarantined in and the distress they are in.
Here's the funny upper middle class white persons version below from the New Yorker. I love how it's titled "Day Two". For those with less cushion or ability to work, it's less funny, and the impacts don't go away right away.
And then this -
Truth of the matter is, for whatever show Cuomo is putting on, there is little to no enforcement of the stay at home order, and anyone out this past sunny Sunday - with packed parks, takeouts, motorcycle convoys, etc..., it's clear people are getting restless. We are social animals.
It's super annoying, because as soon as you say 'lets get this show back on the road', any thinking person soon realizes it can't be done without widespread testing, and for some reason, this country that was made great again can't mobilize and produce tests, even though we are 6 weeks into this.
I'm a big WWII history fan, and I'm listening to a big sympathetic biography of W. Churchill, and I'm just covering the part when American comes into the war. Literally, through a national mobilization, the US was producing more planes than Germany and England combined. It's that ability to produce, to lead, to nudge or bully the world in a generally-accepted positive direction that is just missing. I mean seriously, anyone who thinks we are 'winning' (to borrow from the executive office), or 'winning very much', is unfamiliar with what winning looks like or feels like, because, having won many times and often throughout my life, this whole thing feels a lot like losing, from my experience. I don't even think you should get a 'participation' trophy for this effort.
Thing is, I live in a poor county (Sullivan) and am transitioning into a mixed social-economic community, NE Pennsylvania, and I've now participated in enough youth sports and seen the antics of these parents and league members to know firsthand that a lot of people have no idea what winning looks like. and mistake it for something entirely different.
But really, there are a lot of ways to open. If McDonalds can be open, residential construction can be open. That's not even hard to explain. If a pizza shop where no one is wearing protective gear, and is fully staffed and crowded behind the service desk - if they can serve 1200 customers a day and the virus isn't spreading, then clearly a tile company and their little crew can be working.
It won't be long till the inconsistency of the State picking winners and losers without real thought will be a problem, and it should be. And it's up to Us to push them in the right direction. The idea we all hide out and wait for the all-clear from Cuomo, well, that's not something I'm in favor of, having watched this political animal who loves the 'pay to play' game of Albany play constituencies off of each other for the last 10+years.
I've been noticing things more, as I pick around the house. I tried the 'delicate' cycle on my dryer for the first time, now that I'm washing my bedsheets twice as much - just thought I'd give it a try. The filter on my water dispenser on my fridge, alerting me for at least a year that it needs to be changed, is low-hanging fruit. I've taken a keen interest in the daily progress of a patch of grass I replaced, as well as the feeding habits of some birds outside (a little disappointed at the variety of birds visiting my bird feeders, but since neither squirrels or bears have yet successfully destroyed them, and they haven't pulled out of the wood fastener and are still hanging) I'll live with the success I've achieved here.
Dog watching the squirrel, who is set on reaching the bird feeders. It's been sad lately, he's not coming around as much, and I feel bad that he gave up on what I'm sure looked liked the lottery at first.
I'm outsizedly annoyed my Iphone doesn't recognize me with my mask on, and typically I'm wearing gloves when this happens so whatever precautions I have taken get muddled with phone screen UFC match. I've gotten really interested in my pillow arrangement after I make my bed - artistically arranging the 6 pillows each day. I'm on a first name basis with my Romba Irobot RonJames, and truly feel bad when he runs into problems when i'm not home and is prevented from finishing his job - I know he feels bad, and I feel bad for him.
I think the true tragedy here, the ironic nature of the damage this virus is doing - is, conceptually, we have the right person in the White House for a business emergency. I mean, literally, we have a guy who has spent his entire life in business, so it's really a situation men of history wait for - a time to lead. How many great leaders never get that moment to flex the full measure of their ability? But here we are, with a business guy leading the nation in a moment of business crisis, and can anyone really make a long list of measures being discussed that get to the heart of the problem?
Sure, the SBA stuff is great - but he didn't craft it - ad now instead of digging into policy debates about how to structure it and how to help the business community, Trump is sniping at organizations that maybe should be self-policing and self-denying funds legally available to them. He literally just wastes our time. My dad - he died in 2014, had a saying, and it was biting in its modesty - 'he's just a disappointment that don't quit'. It's got impact because it recognizes promise that is self-impeded, and it recognizes the general sadness of its impact on others.
Truly, if there is any good that comes from this, it will be in book form, and it will be 'how not to fight a war'. It's instructional.
Demand is Up. Banks V. Trump.
It's only been 3 weeks since the pause began, but what a 3 weeks it has been. What is true one week is outdated the next, what is true one day is not the next what is true one hour is challenged the next.
That being said, our evaluation of what this means to the Catskills upstate real estate market remains fluid. We are fielding a lot of calls looking for homes. With motivated buyers.
I've been saying since the PPP program came out, putting the onus on banks large and small to lend lend lend with little if no regular due diligence on the loans - I've been saying from day one how would/could any bank trust the word of a President who has spent his life screwing banks.
And then, there you have, a statement he makes in the middle of his daily rantings, where he says 'banks should be lending... according to what we think it right." What?! What kind of guidance is that? it's his opening gambit to blame the banks for a poorly structured loan program.
I'm a small town bank aficionado. I love small banks, and recognize their value, and the skills and community-knowledge that enables these banks to survive and prosper, for generations, for centuries +. They occupy a very important place in our society.
And now you have a country asking every bank to step up and serve their community, as quick as possible, with fuzzy rules, to do away with all the due diligence and caution and precision that have kept them in business - and within 3 weeks we start getting comments where the president starts throwing shade on the only thing these banks had to go on - faith that the American Government will make them whole.
If the Feds would screw these small banks in some way, even with unclarity or fear, the damage that would do is incalculable.
Stimulus checks, Payroll Protection and Expanded Unemployment
You can understand the dilemma - how does a stalemated congress get a $2t stimulus bill through in record time? The answer seems to be 'with as little nuance and detail as possible'. Catapult a big spend package into the besieged city and hope for the best.
Which is why, just a few short weeks into it, anyone with a little small business experience can see the shortcomings, moral hazards and unintended consequences.
First, regarding the stimulus - remind me why all families making under $150k ($75k for individuals) need $2400 (plus $$ for kids)? Yes, if you've been harmed and impacted. Yes, if you lost a job. But what about the 75% of Americans who haven't been impacted at all? Just send them money too. While the short answer is 'sure, why not', the longer reply to that is 'because then you have less money for those who actually need it.' We are touting a 'donate it, don't deposit it' for those who are receiving checks who haven't been harmed.
2nd, the Payroll Protection Program is just silly, as it stands currently. First, all you have to do is attest (not prove) your business has been harmed - there is no other criteria. With that loose definition, really, who hasn't been harmed? 2nd, it's encouraging small business to keep on staff for no other reason than the government is paying for it. The problem there is having employees costs money. Worker's Comp, payroll costs, administration costs, and the grand daddy of them all, the hazard of continuing to spend on projects and investments that may not be in the business' best interest at the moment. Sure, I can keep all my employees on, but what am I going to do with them? Continue to invest in homes that may or may not have a buyer in the end? It sort of is the ultimate short-sighted trap- government induced small business spending in order to get a forgivable loan for producing/activities you possibly shouldn't be engaging in.
The PPP, in defining eligible businesses as under 500 employees and a simple test of "I boy scout promise we've been harmed', are not elements a successful program make. It should have been under 50 employees, no questions asked. Under 250, more questions asked, 250-500 a lot of questions asked. It's the under 50, really under 20, employees that don't have many options, and typically don't have many reserves. Of course the bigger the company the easier it is to receive this money - they have good books, ready access to accountant, strong banking relationships, staff accountants and book-keepers, fast internet and tons of time to apply. Duh. It's not their fault the feds did a shitty job with the structure of the program.
The expanded unemployment benefits is another thing to look out for. For the next 4 months - now that the government has tacked on $600 to any state benefit - anyone making less than $50k a year, or $24 an hour - makes more on unemployment than working. So if you were working at $10 or $15 an hour, you literally get a gigantic raise by not working. Not saying it's good or bad, just saying that it's enticing to people who are working to seek unemployment they wouldn't otherwise seek when it is 50% of the typical employment earnings.
I think we are seeing the difference between the 2009 and 2020 responses. Both with good frameworks of ideas to solve real problems quickly. In 2009 you had an executive branch that respected the deep recesses of professionalism and advisors in the government, and in 2020 you have an executive branch that has hollowed out the depth of experience that could aid and craft more nuanced legislation.
Here's the dirty little secret. The federal government doesn't have nearly enough money to bail out the private sector, and every dollar it wastes with misfires is a dollar that was needed someplace else.
Barn 34 and Farm 30 - Sold Real Estate in the Catskills
The other week we - was it the end of March - we sold two homes.
The first, Farm 30 in Olivebridge NY, was a 2014 Catskill Farms new build. The home was represented and sold by our Sistah company Lazy Meadows Realty. A fantastic home that the owners were kind enough to let me use as a 'show' house for years. It inspired a lot of people. Sold for $716k+/-. About 2800 sq ft.
The 2nd was a brand new Barn 34 in Narrowsburg NY. At 1500 sq ft on 6 acres with 600 more sq feet of finished basement, a fun home that checks a lot of boxes. Sold for under $450k.
Our part-time graphic designer/web person has been helping out a lot, including a fun project where we are putting our builds to classic music, in order to enjoy them quietly from the comfort of the couch, or the bed, with pillows positioned comfortably, with lots of call outs to the significant other such as 'wow, honey, have you seen these guys?"
A link to the broader array of our videos on youtube -
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=catskill+farms
and a more curated one of the new home initiative at
https://vimeo.com/channels/catskillfarms/page:6
