Floods, Taylor Swift & Next Steps
It’s hard to spend much time appreciating what didn’t happen to you - like proving a negative - if it didn’t happen, how do you calibrate the appreciation? If it did happen- if a house did flood after a storm, if a house did leak after a storm, if roofs blew off after a storm, if a truck or trucks got stuck after a storm - it’s easy to calibrate your rage, which I’d like to say is in direct proportion to the problem in front of you but I don’t find that to be true. Some of the problems that really aren’t big deals annoy me more than they should probably because they should have avoided in the first place, and some of the biggest are so serious you have no choice but to put aside emotion, and dig in and fix it with all your financial and labor resources.
And I’ve had some doozies over the years- completely out of the blue, disasters. The one that really sticks out, but only because I was sitting around minding my own business, was after I finally finished a 4 lot subdivision build out in Phoenixville PA, a once in a generation flood hit and I got a call that there was 8’ of water in my olympic-sized swimming pool basement and that the tenant was being rescued in a canoe. I mean, talk about a scheduling pivot!
The Hudson Valley got some flooding recently, with more rain more quickly than the streams, creeks and rivers could hold, and boy did they rise quickly. It was the volume over a short period of time rather than the volume, generally. I’ve seen this in my personal experience and with others - that disaster flooding seems to only happen once in a generation for flood prone areas, so there is a memory lapse or fading of how bad it was, and gentrification and business building creeps in and starts to prosper and then wham, bam, flood. Livingston Manor is once every 10 years, and I’m reading social media like “worst we’ve ever seen’, “omg I can’t believe it’, when anyone who has been around for even a short while is well aware that Livingston Manor floods. Always has, always will, and it’s typically not minor flooding. The fact that most of those new businesses are less than 7 years old means they had no institutional memory of the pretty predictable flooding. I’m not blaming them, but I couldn’t help but wonder about the ‘when not if’ scenario that was sure to occur.
I've had some additional opportunities to buy land or rental homes in a flood area - not a flood prone area, just an area that could flood - and I turned them down, just because been there done that. Sometimes it's fine, sometimes it's not.
The flood in Phoenixville was a lot less predictable, with the last one being in 1970, so that’s literally a lifetime - and as Phoenixville expanded there was pressure to develop, redevelop, rehab, fix up or build new in areas that most people around for awhile would and did look at with trepidation - but who’s going to listen to some old timer when deals are to be had. The timing of it, just after 5 years of effort on my part with a very heavy lift to get it done, during covid and all those challenges, was supremely unfair. Many young families had just moved into the area.
My point is, going back to the beginning, when I drove around on Thursday to our job sites wondering what I was going to find, I didn't find much of anything to worry about, so it's hard to get excited or emotionally elevated about things that didn't happen - the brain just doesn't work that way.
That’s also why you always got to have some reserve gas in the tank, cause shit is going to happen, all the time, when it’s least expected. It’s a lesson that keeps on being true - the test is never over, never ending. While it didn't happen this time, the unexpected is still out there lurking, stalking me.
And that’s why my next move is so interesting, compelling and difficult. I have the best team I have ever assembled. I have the money and financing. I was just introduced to some land that could keep me busy for a few years. But no matter how great the team or the opportunity, the job is hard, the responsibility real, the management complex, the risks always genuine. There is no coasting through construction projects - at least not at the volume and speed we need to operate in order to pay our bills, benefits and earn our profits.
I’ve been thinking a bit more about the Taylor Swift wedding, and Im thinking perhaps I was too dogmatic in my opinion of her needing to insert herself into the world cup festivities, the 250 USA founding festivities - I’m not taking all that back, I think her inclination to insert herself in other people’s parties is a bit problematic, but logistically, in NYC, in a covered venue, makes sense. (pictures are emerging of Travis Kelce a bit out of shape in training camp).
1, so much is going on, high profile people coming and going from the City is rather unnoteworthy and hard to track, so her guest list gets protected. 2, the covered arena eliminates aerial distraction in the form of drones, helicopters, etc… trying to cover the event. 3, the security capabilities is unsurpassed. 4. It’s easy for her guests to get to. And 5, then the guests just fade back into the NYC scene, which is always filled with celebs and goings on - with a well-protected guest list, you couldn’t say why this person or that person was in town. The effectiveness of the NDA is pretty impressive too - few leaks about attendees or activities even a month later - the NDA must have had both real teeth and real ways to track.
Our Ranch being constructed in Kerhonkson seems to be going under contract, which would be a big (though predictable) win. And with our Barn at Timberlake and the Modern Ranch in Fremont finishing up, and our projects under construction moving right along, it’s just another one of those profitable years- though, the profit margins are shrinking, and good planning and risk management is becoming more and more important - which to be honest is fine with me, the harder it is the more we are equipped to handle it, and certainly more equipped than our competition. Books are tight, cash flow healthy, clear head and lots of pondering the next move.
Fremont NY Modern Ranch.
