Catskills - Sullivan County - Ulster County Real Estate -- Catskill Farms Journal

I'm a big news guy.  Less TV news than newspaper and digital, but since the Plague started, I've been ramping up on my news, and have settled into CNN, which evolved into a crush on New Day's host Alisyn Camerota.    Today was her first day back in the Studio since the pandemic started, and you could tell she was a little more made up and polished with the professionals on staff.

Then it turns out one of my client couples who we are building a home with, who I had the unenviable fun task of communicating the lumber inflation issue to, turns out the wife of the team is an executive producer there.  So, of course, I'm immediately thinking about angling for a meet and greet with Ms Camerota, but then, in a moment of rare insight, I know I'd flub it up, tongue-twisted, nothing to say, so I let the thought pass unspoken.  But who knows, maybe some day at the White House Correspondent Dinner I'll be sitting right there.    Then it turns out their neighbor who I am building a home for is an executive producer for 60 Minutes.My 11 year old 84 lb 5'3" son gets a real kick out of telling the story about how my one girlfriend after we parted moved to California, like somehow the events were related.  

So, as I was dreaming, I was also making my way through Norman Mailer's Harlot's Ghost, a 1300 page book about the 50's and 60's CIA scene at the beginning of the Castro area, Bay of Pigs, Marilyn Monroe death (who he might have been married to), JFK death.  A meandering, sort of pointless book that kept my attention throughout.  I'm not sure when I started, I'm sure I blogged about it prior, but now I'm finished.  I might move onto another of his, maybe the Executioner's Song, which I remember running as a mini-series in the mid-70's on one of the 3 networks.  The book was sort of so well crafted that it's meandering nature with non-finite alleyways almost makes me wonder if that was the point, that spy work is meandering, many times pointless, and hardly tangible.

On Friday I wrote a blog message about lumber inflation, which is real and scary.  Scary because it was scary in the way empty shelves at the grocery store was scary 3 months ago - it was as much and more scary because it indicated that the future is uncertain, and what is around the corner of disruption is unknown.  Confusing sentence but I'm keeping it.

It's scary for as much as what it may forecast than for the actual event.

So anytime my lumber guy calls me up, it's never for good news, because good news just goes to the rest of the team, usually in the way of deliveries, shipments, availability, etc...  He calls me up when there is an issue, and this issue turns out, he says, lumber is up 25% and still going, which I wrote about Friday, since it was such an unprecedented event and that's what this blog is for.

So, I dug into it Saturday morning while the kid was sleeping and found out that 25% is the minimum prices have risen, and 35%, 45% in some products like plywood were evident, and that's to me, one of their larger customers, god knows what the small fries are encountering.  So far, no disruption in the products that are needed, but plenty of scarcity on the fringes and margins of what is necessary and you have to wonder when the item you need won't be available, things you take for granted like a 2x10x14 flooring joist (yes, i know, all the ladies are crooning over my lumber talk).  The whole pandemic benefits from a steady hand at the helm for sure.

The new website is coming along nicely, but a ton of work, needing a time investment I don't have but have to invest.  Also developing a nice lawsuit against https://www.linkedin.com/in/jesscoburn Jess Coburn of Applied Innovations for his negligence.   It's funny how many companies/people have nice website, but not necessarily ones that live and breath the air of the company, and have sailed the business seas with me, the proprietor.  Not the best site, didn't work on great on mobile, was sort of backward in the backend (that's what she said), but it was a real live digital partner in my 2 decade journey.  It was recognizable and stable, 2 hard to find friends in the lively course of business building.  It's like this Jess Coburn tossed a digital match my way and watched my life's work burn.

I'm actually getting over it - I'm on like 'Depression' on the 7 stages of grief, which leaves me with just 'testing' and then the grand daddy 'acceptance'.  Which would be fine, but the 'no time, no capacity' thing makes it harder.

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It's tough communicating to kids about this virus, but I thought this cover was really helpful.  It's funny, but real, hilarious, but sort of sad.

https://www.facebook.com/joe.b.rogers/videos/10223090546195398.

One thing that has been consistent among all the newness of this virus life is the unpredictable nature of it, the way new unexpected hurdles keep popping up from nowhere.   Lumber shortages, and some other products, have been in short supply, in weird ways.  Deck lumber, concrete stain, pressure treated lumber.  The fear in the back of mind is a shortage we can't be without, some sort of lumber that prevents us from moving forward, but that hasn't happened yet.  A friend of mine's dad said he ordered some dock lumber, and paid a third more and waited 2 months.

Anyways, my point is we are seeing incredible price inflation in framing lumber.  20%, 25%.  Too much demand, not enough supply.   It's hard to square the unemployment rate, the small business failure, the stock market rise in the face of declining consumer demand, and the robustness of the economy.  Really makes me wonder what is around the corner, and no matter how good our today is, I'm super aware of the trap that is being set in terms of optimism, especially in the marketplace I work in.  It's a quandary, since I'm just about ready or have just begun, 8 houses of framing, meaning I'm swimming right into the mouth of the inflation shark.  We shall see what we should do, or have to do. Above, pic of all the lumber going up in cost like a runaway train.

It's not a time to be new in business - while the opportunity is large, the risks seem as large.

For instance, the NYTimes comes up with a new article of nonsense, and I don't even mean that meanly, like I normally do.  

New Style of Country Home Takes Root

Most of the article is about a development in Green County that hasn't built a home, hasn't overcome one hurdle, hasn't weathered one unexpected disaster, hasn't put together one team.  A NYTimes spread about a home that doesn't exist.  They mention Hudson Woods, but from what I hear, while Hudson Woods did build out their project in Kerhonkson, they got their asses kicked by the process, the lack of labor, the lack of subcontractor depth, and even though they were selling houses at twice the price they should have been listed at, was still so unprofitable they decided to do no more.  Sleight of hand, selling air, branding over product.  I feel our clients are way too smart for that.  In fact, I feel our clients are the smartest of the bunch.

But it does get my undershorts a bit in a knot, in a low fever way, because it is so undeserved.  It literally doesn't exist and even if they were superstuds, which they never are, we are talking 2 years before someone moves in.  This is a story that will harm a lot of lives, with big deposits on homes that are never produced, or produced much in the future at half the promised glory. Seen it, watched it before.

It appears some of the karmic 'for every good thing will be an equally bad thing' existence I had going seems to be fading, but wow, I'd almost give up the tubular rad wave of awesomeness we surf daily for a little less drama.

I could start this blog post with reporting new sales we booked this week, but that just seems boring at this point.  A better way to describe the Catskill Farms sales activity is to reflect on the announcement of no new clients - A Sales Moratorium.  So congratulations to those who made it in under the bell, before the avalanche sealed off the Indian Jones like cave escape.  For the time being, no more people through the velvet ropes of our door.

This is a first in our 20 year history, the first time we couldn't accommodate the families who wanted to build with us.  We expect this to continue through early October.

Though, like I said earlier, for every fantastic event, we seem to be having an equal not so terrific event.  Family illness in one of important employees, production delays in unexpected corners (like kitchens now taking 13 weeks instead of 3), website got deleted, my contact in my phone got corrupted, and now the hurricane knocked out power to many, diverting the attention of the electric utility company who was days away from installing electric at 6 of our home sites.  Oh, and my new Garmin for my bike refuses to sync with my phone, if that doesn't beat all.

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Besides 'the troubles', we have a lot of positive news to report on the sales front.  That doesn't change the fact that the corrupted website continues to reveal its tragic dimensions - every blog post I had that linked to it is now link corrupted, pictures not showing up, etc...  Keep in mind I've been writing the blog since 2004.

Mini Ranch on Kratz Road is now in contract -

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The New Farmhouse on Kratz Road, Callicoon NY, contract signed today -

A new deal on a house in Saugerties NY (a version of this fancy shaker style)

Another Ranch going into contract, not started, in Saugerties NY.

And on the lazy meadows real estate side, we put two purchase offers together.

Oh, and we are building 14 homes.

I see a pool in my future.

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