Trades, rebranded
4th of July, with the 3rd delivering two closings as previously reported. But just because they are on the books doesn’t mean every closing happens, since things going sideways is the nature of the business. However, for us, with a skill team ranging from lawyers to carpenters to administrators, we are pretty good as bring them home when scheduled.
The mini-barn, which Josh and Jennifer owned since 2015, has resold by my real estate company, Lazy Meadows. The mini-barns are fun houses, with a ton of style.
Ranch 69 also sold to Arlen and Sydney, and that 2500 sq ft Ranch on a bunch of acres turned out really sweeeet.
With no new starts recently, we are juggling the fewest amount of homes under construction since 2019/early 2020. That’s fine with me. The heavy llft daily 3 page to do lists can bend your back after awhile, and 24 years is by any definition ‘a while’.
Back to a little more trade v college discussion. I’m a reader, and attribute much of my economic forward progress to reading and writing, developed by reading and writing - communication is important. So, as parents and students rightfully and intelligently shy away from large loads of student loan debt and degrees with value in the marketplace, the ability to pivot into trade schools, community colleges, and specific industry programs like programming that take 9 months should become more measurable.
1, that’s good. However, there seems to be a lane for this early career track to be complimented with some liberal arts education. Two things - the non-4 year college track needs to be rebranded, from ‘trades’ to something else, like the ‘accelerated career’ path. “Trades” just doesn’t capture all the jobs being put into that basket, under that umbrella. Barbers, programmers, welders, home theater, landscape design, some nursing, seamstresses, musicians, auto mechanics, photography - this isn’t captured well by the generic ‘trades’. The 2nd thing is that a liberal arts intro to history, english, or whatever - just the exposure to ideas, thinking, a broadening of perspective - if those who choose the accelerated career path want to escape the stigma of the ‘trade’ brand, then they have to start acting the part, and adding some wider learning into their program.
It’s early on the 4th, and I feel the ideas above are poorly articulated, but it’s a start.
It’s stupid when a person feels compelled not to recognize deficiencies in their arguments, and there are certainly deficiencies to any argument that throws shade on the college experience with nuance. Education - direct and indirect- , networking, exposure to new ideas, getting away from the hometown, peer enhancement - all these by-products of higher education have value.
But at what cost? $50k of debt? $100k of debt? An environment now that emphasisizes the ‘college experience’ as much as the education? Education costs have accelerated far beyond what market forces would allow, and it’s all because of the predatory lending programs aimed at clueless kids and parents who want to help their kids succeed - so in some very simple ways, college has become a scam to over-hype their value, and over-charge as a result, and have a government that hasn’t produced a good regulatory framework around student loans. And then a full 40% or more don’t finish college, or take more than 4 years.
The pressure to accept the most prominent college offer, regardless of cost, because it can be paid for with loans, needs to change, since few if any future jobs will depend on ‘where’ you get you degree, so dialing into a smart financial choice is important.
There are more ‘trade’ jobs - interesting and creative - out there now then ever before, and they are unfilled, they have significant advancement opportunities, they pay well, and the path forward through these careers are easy to see.
I value education. I think reading opens up all sorts of worlds - both creative and practical. I actually wouldn’t wish a narrow path of curriculum on anyone, knowing what I know now and understanding the impact of a broad education, which promotes empathy, context, sympathy and general understanding of space and time.
A lot of words to have come full circle without even a hint of problem resolution.
Ranch selling and a trip to Martha's Vineyard
After a night in NYC and dining at the mid-town seafood joint Milos, I drove back upstate, managed the bills and payables for the week, packed and then headed out for Martha’s Vineyard, via the Wood Hole ferry.
We have another house queued up for sale in Narrowsburg, which my friend Tony has been sending me a bunch of articles being written about the area. From my experience, when that starts to happen, typically there is someone new in town with some press connections who is getting us in the news. I’ve literally built 50 homes in Narrowsburg, first when it was a true tumbleweed town with a good diner, from there a few hardy small businesspeople who have stayed put and anchored the town. I can’t say our clients single-handedly built that town with their discretionary spending, but there’s no doubt their weekend leisure spending helped create the sustainability that small businesses crave. I’d walk into the Heron when it opened in 2009 or so, and literally, and I mean literally, every table would be occupied by a Catskill Farms homeowner. That type of consistent customer means a lot to an establishment.
More than that, our marketing efforts were more robust and effective than the visitor’s association at the time, our digital footprint easy to find, and our pencil sketches of life upstate - be it the blog, or the houses, or the presentation - drew in a whole new set of eyeballs on the area. From 2002-2015, we were one of the only companies putting up new homes geared to the weekend crowd.
Homes have - to use a favorite phrase a business school grad taught me - not only an economic cross-multiplier, meaning buying a home is just the first of many purchases and investments a homeowning family will make, but there is for sure a continued marketing residue of them owning a home upstate - talking about it, going up there, inviting friends, expousing through social media network about their little dream escape upstate.
The house we have just about ready to sell sits up on a little hill with fantastic tree-filtered morning light hitting an expanse of windows positioned just right - accidental perfect house placement, I think not. It’s a lot of value for what they are paying in today’s market.
I came across an article listing, in breathless tones, the salaries of cardiac surgeons, etc… and I have to say, I was surprised by the modesty of them. Spend 15 years in school and make $600k. My mason probably doubles that. My one excavator who has his fingers in lawn care, hardscaping and dirt work, definitely meets or exceeds that. I haven’t seen those levels in 5 years and typically double, triple or more that. I tell you, there is a ton of money in the trades, and you can definitely be making $100k at age 22 with no student loan debt with a good plan - that puts him/them on a route to be $700,000 in earnings more than the college graduate. And if that college person is coming out with debt and making $60k a year, by the time the two different routes hit 30, the tradesperson is a million dollars ahead. And even in future earnings, there’s as much advancement potential for the trades than there is for white collar, and more often than not, the trades actually reward accumulated skill whereas white collar is half bullshit and the other half faking it. Of course, that’s too strong of a characterization, but a lot of white collar stuff is nonsense - staring at a screen, acting busy.
I don’t really believe everything I just wrote, but there’s truth to it.
Now, back to Martha’s Vineyard. During summers at the University of Pittsburgh, where I was the first person in a large family attempting college (I have 100 first cousins), I met up with some guys and became friends and we ventured to Martha’s Vineyard one cold weekend in winter, 1989, looking for work. Farmer Jim Athearn of Morning Glory Farm hired us on the spot (for $4.25 minimum wage) for that coming summer in the comfort of his living room. This was pre-Clinton, who raised the profile of the Vineyard, followed by some boom years, then Obama sought it out, so the trajectory has been growth and more growth. The farm was a nuts and bolts operation back then and now its got an international brand. Lots of people know Edgartown and Morning Glory Farm.
So my friend Leo, from college and the Vineyard, now lives in Sonoma Cty California, and my friend Justen, has called Martha’s Vineyard home since 1994. So we are all up here, they with their wives, me solo, telling the same stories of the glory days of end of farm work week downing large quantities of Southern Comfort and stumbling around town. While we weren’t part of it, the children of the New England blue bloods abounded. I haven’t been up here in a bit, and you forget about the polished safe leisure good-looking life of the Ivy League Upper Classes.
I brought my bike, and did 35 miles in a stiff wind around the island. Packing my bike in my Benz coupe, working with rachets, and tools and the like and trying to get it into the trunk and more or less just looking like a fool, reminded me of something I’ve known for a long time but kind of keep quiet - I would never hire myself for any of the field work required for the success of what I do - even as a laborer. Both my aptitude for it, and my attitude towards it (when I’m doing it myself, I greatly admire and respect the work of others) both are lacking, and it shows quickly when put to the test.
Lucas' summer is getting off to a fast start, with a week at Virginia Beach and then a week at my house leisuring caped off with an epic day of friends and a sleep over.
Half of this crew and others dyed their hair blonde.
The room temperature down in the TV room was like 95 degrees with all the heating engines of teenagers.
It occurred to me, while riding my bike, that most town I've lived in over the last 40 years have been on an upward trajectory, economically - Lancaster, PA - Pittsburgh PA - Martha's Vineyard - NYC - Catskills - Milford - Hudson Valley. I'm sure that economic 'brighter day' has served as a strong rip tide in my overall business investment optimism as I launch ventures, or stick with it in hopes the tide turns my way.
Ranch 66, SOLD
Ranch 66 in Olivebridge also sold while I was away. This home is on 10 acres and once we started clearing the trees for the house and septic, it became apparent we were going to have a view of High Point in Ashokan, a mountain I’ve hiked several times.
Several of the properties had pretty good views which were not apparent when I started construction, and I think for the most part were not apparent even when I sold the lots. Pleasant surprise for everyone but of course you can’t help but wonder if you priced them too low, now that they have some pretty killer views.
The market is pretty interesting, and by interesting I mean tricky. I don’t follow other realtors sales close enough to know if things are sitting around or not and days on the market ticked up measurably, but from just the ‘feel’ of it, it seems like that’s the case. So, while there is always a twinge of ‘what if’ in a lot my sales, in the end, one the hand is worth two in the bush - and booking sales, even if not at tippy top sales, has always been my mantra, and I think its a good one to keep on following.
My lumber bill was $70k last month. I haven’t had a $70k lumber bill since, Idk when - maybe 2008? The previous month was $400k, which is tough on the cash flow fo sure. There’s all sorts of ways to gain insight metrics into business activity, some obvious some not so. The $400k was interesting because that was done when lumber and materials prices had stabilized, not back in pandemic days when things had tripled in cost - the $400k measure construction progress, since all progress is measured by an increase in cost of good sold, so to do that much construction in a month- holy cow. Pretty much not repeatable - but for a shining moment, we crushed it operationally.
That segues backwards about my team-building or lack of - it was clear with a person in that ordering/receiving/purchasing/returns seat - solely focused on it and not in the weeds with the clients - that’s a good structure if you are growing.
Ranch 66 turned out really nice. The clients - which I only have this one action photo - took some risks and they all really paid off. That green kitchen matching or complimenting the green board and batten accent wall, the amazing primary bath, the fun salvaged wall in the ground floor. This Ranch tops out at about 2600 sq ft, has some serious deck, and this one came with a fully conditioned - meaning heat, electric, insulation - studio framed by the mountain.
That’s the 5th sale out of 9. And if you know anything about development, you know about half way or more through you start actually getting past investment recoupment and start getting into profits, so there’s that.
Ranch 68 SOLD
Had a pretty good vacation, and also did a lot of monetizing and movement while I was gone. We closed on Ranch 68, closed on Ranch 66 and went into contract on a resale that the owners of 8 years were kind enough to let me list and sell. That's about $2.2m of transaction value while on the beach in the Riviera, if anyone is counting.
This house, even though it wasn't the first to close was the first to go into contract as a result of a food truck open house I had about a year ago. Was it only a year ago I hadn't sold a house there?- wow, hadn't thought of that way. Anyway, this young Ukranian handsome couple who had their first child while we were building the home, was the first the sign up. I often joke - at least I think he knows it's a joke - that here is was acting like a rookie home/land buyer, with his foreign naivety going up against and aged and veteran Catskills deal maker, and by moving first and having a good eye ended up getting the best deal in the project - literally picked my pocket!!! And picked a winner of a piece of land when it was pretty hard to decipher what was going where, etc.... My no problem - early movers, the ones that take on a little extra risk, usually get rewarded with better pricing. Same thing happened to me in St Pete's, where I was one of the first 15 buyers in a new downtown condo and got about a $200k first mover, developer needs sales, discount.
So good for them. I'll do a quick aside - you know what they didn't have while navigating the duty and work and stress of a pregnancy - they didn't have build drama. Sure we had our issues and problems to work through, which we did and now they are moving in. Pretty much on time and pretty much on budget - 2 things you don't encounter much in this business - plus a really fun and creative and tasteful home that will meet their needs for a long time to come.
If you zoom in you can see the baby with a huge smile.
A 2400 sq ft 3 bedroom Ranch on 7+ acres. The acreage we are able to offer up there is unheard of in this market. With land itself going for $250k+ for questionable quality, what we are doing up there in terms of the whole package pricing is simply not touchable for most of my competition. That's why I took the leap and did the subdivision, even though I knew the risks of time and money it would entail.
Beautiful home. Lovely clients. Another notch in our 24 year track record belt of designing, building, selling homes and pairing them with best in class pieces of land.
A brain is a funny thing to waste on over-focusing on problems and their requisite solutions instead of the glory of the sale and all the relationships - I guess the issue is the 'win' is static and defined, while the problems are fluid and evolving.
