Catskills - Sullivan County - Ulster County Real Estate -- Catskill Farms Journal

Watching the news like never before in these uncertain times.  Glad I decided to go more liquid at the beginning of this year, keeping some powder dry.  Should help us navigate short-term and medium-term disruptions.  I have a lot of confidence in my business expertise, big picture evaluations, and decision-making, so while I hate to see this turmoil, I don't mind pitting my skills against my competitors during times that aren't perfect.  Anyone can look good when all the stars are aligned.  During the last recession, where we continued to build and sell homes, we built a gigantic market share lead that we never lost.  People still talk about how we were the only company selling homes back then.  It's when the depth of your team and relationships are tested most, and I have full confidence in my team, from our banking resources, to our contractors, to our clients, to my strategic and front-running pivots.  You find out who is swimming without trunks when the tide goes out.

Also, having a great sense of business history, business cycles, booms, bust and different types of recoveries, and having the perspective to put today's challenges in an historical perspective helps.  It's scary when you think 'this time is different', since whether it is for the good, or for the bad, there is typically many signals of caution and hope in things that have happened in the past.

There's a depression area story about 2 cereal brands who historically competed head to head - and when things got really bad, both had to make tough decisions about spending.  One company made the hard decision to stop branding and marketing, and the other made the equally tough decision to continue with that expensive expenditure.  Well, the company that continued to invest in its brand made market share gains that they never lost, even 90 years later.  No better time to brand when no one else is - it's cheaper, and there is less noise to compete with your message.

On Pine Lane, in Saugerties on the border with Woodstock, we have built 2 new 810 sq ft modern cabins on 1 acre each.   A new type of offering, meant to provide the Ulster County market with a more affordable option.

I've seen a bunch since I've been in business.  Saw the boom in the early 2000's which was frenzied enough to allow some space for a small fry to get in the game, bounce along the learning curve and come out the other side ok.

I saw the contraction of 2007-2013, where we were said to be 'the only company in the USA' still selling homes.  Granted that may have been because our client was a small narrow niche slice of Manhattanites who still had good jobs and their real estate held steady.  No lending, major stock declines, with only Triple AAA rated folks (ie., Catskill Farms' only type of client).

We've seen the 2014-2019 Hudson Valley boomlet, with competitors coming from all directions (albeit with mostly unsustainable products and price points).

And now the next one, which I've been waiting for.  didn't know what it would be, but history instructs us well on the inevitability of business cycles.  For while the symptom of the stock markets woes may be a cough and a sneeze, the root was sugar-high valuations just waiting to be spooked.

So, we are getting more calls, more emails, more urgency, as people plan for the worst, and are looking for the security a little home upstate can provide.

I definitely remember a few calls back when the world was ending 11 years ago today (low point of stock market), with frightened young families on the other end, looking for an upstate home, looking for getaway in case they need to getaway in a hurry if, as rumored, civilization may have been coming to an end as we knew it.

Though, I do have to say losing $500 in a risk free money market account today was a weird consequence of the panic.

I don't know who listens to Dave Ramsey, conservative finance guru, but I like though not aligned with all his preachings.  I'm always amazed at the low financial IQ of most of America - seems to me that would make life very scary.  His anti-debt mantras ring true, though I use debt heavily, but not consumer, mostly business.

I cannot believe Marvin Gaye's "Let's Get it On' is being used to sell Reese's Peanut Butter cups.  Not sure why there is a rash of great songs being cheaply commercialized, but I'm seeing it more and more and each time it's an eye-popper, jaw-dropper.  "Unchained Melody' for Kentucky Fried chicken - that hurt, and a lot more.  You've always had the crossover, but typically the brands being sold were much more aligned with the artist, ad, etc.., - think Nick Drake's Pink Moon, to promote VW's.

Watched Al Pacino in Scarface last night.  Was trying to watch the new Amazon "Hunter" but wasn't that great, so stayed with Pacino.  As I watched it, it just really reminded me of the mistakes of youth - when I was like 17, dating the daughter of a navy midshipman and father of 3 daughters, and they kindly ask me to pick the movie from Blockbuster to watch, and I choose Scarface.   They were well-mannered enough not to kick me out on my butt, but over the years it has sunk in how inappropriate that movie was on many levels - the sex, language, drugs, etc...  Now that I'm a dad of 50 yrs old, I can really see the error of that choice.   Makes me cringe nearly as bad as watching Bloomberg in his first debate.

My son is playing lacrosse this year, and I can see why it has historically been the bastion for white rich kids - wow, expensive, with little to no school supplied equipment.  I was a huge baseball player - and quite good - so to see him go to the dark side is difficult, though I encouraged it and look forward to the season.  He's athletic but a bit uncoordinated at times, so this running and throwing and catching should move him forward.  Also have him jumping rope, which is comical, and mostly unsuccessful.

Sold my condo on the Bay in Miami's South Beach last week.  Such a great spot, but such a god-awful Board and building it made the whole experience less than it should have been.  Personal real estate always comes with higher emotional weight and expectations than my business stuff - and I always keep that in mind as we transact business with our clients from day to day.

I, Charles Petersheim, have a really good sense of where I need to be when, if only for a minute, during our build processes.  Take a few pictures, send them back via FB private page to the office, tagged about what I’m seeing, though many times the issue I’m pointing out is abundantly clear from the snapshot – especially if it’s the 19th time that year I’ve taken the same picture. Change comes slow.

In an environment where help is in short supply and production schedules are being delayed and disrupted by lack of qualified help, we are in an enviable position, with long term dedicated help, and a few recent strategic additions.  We are fully staffed, adding or competing in the marketplace or scouting or hunting most effectively.

Friday started in Milford, then to Saugerties, then to across the Mighty Hudson to East Chatham, then to Hudson for dinner with friends, then late night back to my new homes in Kerhonkson, where I spent the night in a nearly finished brand new home with my dog and air mattress.  The dog kept trying to nudge her way onto the air mattress.  She loves luxe and comfort.

Waking in the morning.  It's always enlightening and fun to spend a night in a new home, empty, with my dog.

Many times, as a small businessperson, you don’t get what you want.  You get a lot of what you want, but many times it’s a zero-sum game (I think I’m using that phrase right).   You take from one place to give to another, and that’s no more true with time, the scarcest of commodities, especially when divvied up against trip to Stowe, Miami, Big Sky, etc….  No just kidding, back to the point – if Amanda and I spend time on an ad or ad campaign, that’s a job that’s not being pushed forward, product not being ordered, building permits not being filed.  We scouted, vetted and hired 3 new carpenters in the last year -not an easy feat and probably invested $10k in a wide-ranging scouting effort, and adding Kacy in the office, to take the pressure off of Amanda and Breanna regarding the marketing.

But as a creative, that means I’m left with 40 ideas a week that never get acted on, just pent up inside while I manage the operational side.  And that can drive a guy crazy, except it can’t since you have to do what you have to do.  And then there is the question of how is this inability to market impacting the business, with the easy answer as, ‘not much’, since we are, and have been, fully sold out for awhile, though we are going to challenge that with 8+ spec homes coming to market.  As someone who knows his business, a lot of my time is allocated in a circular fashion – employees, banking, land search, operational, marketing, repeat.

As a guy who spent a lot of time working with people I didn’t like just for the sake of the business, and throttling and bottling up most of my creative energies in a trade off of operational necessity, I feel almost ecstatic (I don’t really get ecstatic but if I did it would be of Dionysus type, mad, hungry, freddy mercury out of control ecstatic (for those who are familiar with his ‘don’t stop by now’ ditty)) for our current place of fully operational and staffed across the company that enables me to have some fun, Richard Branson style -  It’s a true reward of the priority setting, patience and self-sacrifice small business entails for many long days and nights, with no real expectation that it will all work out just fine in the end.

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