Catskills - Sullivan County - Ulster County Real Estate -- Catskill Farms Journal

So Says Wesley Clair Mitchell, economist, in his 1913 book, Business Cycles - "In that organic cycle, entrepreneurs who think business conditions will improve become 'centers of infection and start an epidemic of optimism'.  That optimism leads to a 'flood tide of prosperity' which washes away caution, creating euphoria that culminates in a crash, which, in turn, clears the way for recovery.  Lather, rinse, repeat"

Or said another way, when the tide goes we see who is not wearing shorts.  So while the current virus is the cause, the pain is acutely felt since optimism abundant, and business owners were forgetting that all economies have cycles, defined mostly by thinking that either 'this time was different' or that you will be the one that finds the chair when the music stops, like the Bob Dylan song from the early '60's where everyone thinks they will be the one that survives the nuclear holocaust and will be roaming the earth alone.

You know things have changed when you discover your ex-wife trying to smuggle two rolls of toilet paper out of your house disguised as fake boobs while picking up her kid.  Busted, she then shamelessly offered cooking/hosting a modern family Sunday night dinner, which I accepted, for one roll, not two.

And when you go to the grocery store - where the shortages were supposed to be because of the initial run on food goods - but each time you go the shelves are a little more bare.  The journey to the grocery store brings all sorts of thoughts to mind.  1, super interesting what is, and isn't being bought.  I'm glad Campbell's tomato soup, one of my favorite meals with a sandwich since I was 10, seems to be not a widely shared soup fetish, for while the soup area was mostly barren, the tomato soup was fully stocked - so I did what you do in those situations - I bought 3x more than I was going to.

In fact, even though I'm worried about shortages, and only have to feed me, my son and my dog, the scarcity caused an almost instinctual desire to hoard.  Why buy one, when you can buy 3?

Paper products - paper towels and toilet paper - have been gone for weeks.  Are they available on Amazon, I'm not sure?  But I'm self rationing, and trading my stock for valued goods and services.  I probably won't do it, but I could - since i buy the thickest 4ply offered in the marketplace, I could self-separate the layers, reroll them, and sell them off.  I'm sure there would be howls of protest, but a simple replay, beggars can't be choosey, should do the trick.

Interestingly, all this sitting at home has reduced my urge to spend money.  When things are rolling and I'm busy all day, I don't think twice about 1 stop shopping on Amazon, for items large and small.  And it's not really for budgeting reasons, it just seems like slowing down and staying put had an impact on my desire to binge buy, that random consumerism lost its glow for now.  I mean, truth be told, I really don't need much at this point, so it's just gluttonous anyway.

I haven't had a toaster in years - but this time at home has really driven home the point that using the broiler in the oven is a waste of time, and I end up over toasting most things, had an oven fire the other night when I forget to take out the Naan bread while talking to my sister, and I end up burning my hand on the cotton-picking broiler coils which hurts like a son of bitch.

I picked a retro model, with a top heating grill and cool gauge.

NY State ordered all construction sites to close.  They didn't put a date on it, so I guess it might immediately.  That's an interesting development for sure and we will see what it means this week for small residential projects.  I'm really interested to understand how enforcement will work.

Not telling us something we don't know.

https://www.curbed.com/2020/3/10/21168519/homes-for-sale-american-home-suburbs

Luckily, and interestingly, construction is considered essential, so we continue apace without sneaking around in the middle of the night, or camping out at the site, both which we were willing to do to keep it moving forward.  We have 3 homes to close in the next 4 weeks, and closed on 2 last week, and I intend to meet the schedule.

Not easy however, with building departments in disarray, the board of health redirecting all their efforts to virus tasks, and the constant fear of new orders about what businesses are permitted.  But, as I predicted and hoped, the strengths of our relationships, the length of our relationships, our credibility across a wide range of municipal, banking, and construction departments, has paid off.  And lest I forget the most important ingredient - our clients, whose strengths as buyers bridge many unexpected issues.  I consider it all a competitive advantage, one that seems relatively unimportant until you need them, and then it's life and death, from a business standpoint.

We needed a septic inspection for a certificate of occupancy, we wanted access our unsecured credit lines, we wanted to close some loans, close some deals, close some houses, and really, it's happening.  We are even getting people to look at our new homes.

Not withstanding the 'good' news on our business front, the pain out there is real.  Out of cash, out of water, out of cash flow, out of work, out of school.

A hiccup on the economic relief package, though it seems to be reconciled now.  I agree with some last minute objections, where unemployment benefits would equal or exceed the actual paycheck, is a really bad idea.  Why would anyone work, or why would any small business fight to keep an employee on if they can make just as much on the dole?

Here's my exercise cabin I built on our property in Milford PA.  Great space for functional fitness.

A new farmhouse in Kerhonkson which will sell in less than 2 weeks.

and a painting from a young swiss painter I bought from my art broker friend Bryan, which just went from my miami beach condo to my Pennsylvania bedroom.  One of my favorites.

And french toast breakfast at the Petersheim Home School.  Frankly, in my opinion, it's amazing it takes 8 hours a day to run through their lessons, because lucas has doubled his learning in half the time.  I guess the inefficiency of educating large numbers defines education.  While I'd never do it, since the socialization is important, and sports and the whole thing, what I'm seeing, viewed only through prism of amount of learning, Lucas is getting a lot more education at home - plus i throw in some primary sex ed, combining art class with sex ed primers, with classic art as tools.

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A couple of observations.

1, because Coronavirus is spelled like the beer, it really facilitates the spelling of it without that dreaded redlined 'check your spelling' indicator.  Much easier than 'h1n1' or other number groupings that challenge us dyslexic people.
2. God, the 'we are in this together', singing from the balconies, feel good nightly news stories, #united, etc... gives me the squirmies.  I've never been much of joiner, and if you aren't practicing these actions as part of your routine, I doubt the sincerity of it now.
3. The amount of car commercials is insane - offer 120 days of payment free purchases with a car you can have delivered straight to your home - ARE YOU INSANE?  I know a lot of people aren't great at math, but delaying payments (with probably a bunch of small print like negative equity accrual) for 120 days does not decrease the eventual cost of the car.

On the front lines, we continue construction at full speed, well-funded with healthy cash flow.  We just sold a new house yesterday and we sell a 2015 Farmhouse resale today (my brokerage firm Lazy Meadows negotiated the sale).  We have 3 other homes more than 80% done under contract that we are focused on.  We of course aren't seeing a ton of new interest, since no one is going anywhere, and the 25% decline in stocks is a real kick in the pants, but less so than you would think for most people.  A metric I'll have to watch is the value of NYC real estate because if it declines 1, the net worth of some of potential clients will decline in proportion, 2, if prices decline some families who rent with buying always out of reach will be able to redirect their upstate budget to a NYC apartment.

On a small business front, I don't see how many of them survive.  I just don't think the President cares enough or is surrounded by enough smart people to engineer a plan that deals with the micro-issues of rent payments, tax holidays, interest payments, employee dislocation, etc...   A broad understanding and compassion for people  and their problems is needed.  Sending people a few thousand dollars is just nothing, since it does nothing for the job creators whose cash flow is strapped in the best of times, and actually does little for the people receiving the money.

We saw some worrying developments - the electric company that serves the hudson valley is not turning on any new electric services (don't want employees together) and the Board of Health is not doing any septic inspections, with all their energies focused on the virus.  Who knows when building departments will shut down.  Fortunately, we are proactively thinking these thru, and have the relationships to find paths that are still open.

Home Depot yesterday -

Signed for an online drawing course through Great Courses.   I tried to have my son take it with me but my god if you ever heard or seen a more reluctant student I just gave up.  He knows how to wear me down, dragging his feet like they are caked in concrete - damn kid.

All the milk I could find yesterday, which leaves me drinking black coffee this morning - not like the British rationing of WWII, but pain is relative and this is a tough shot across the bow.

For some reason i was telling someone a story yesterday of when I was like 9 and aimed my bb gun at a robin on a tree about 40' away ('never shoot a robin' echoed in my head).  Now mind you, I never hit a thing in my life but I lifted the gun, shot, and to my horror, the bird spiraled to the ground, a clean shot to the head.  Freaking out, I took the dead bird, and put in it the folger's coffee can bird house my younger brother had put in the tree as part of a boy scout project.  Luckily for me, he never refilled the bird house, but it did slowly rot all summer, radiating an odor we all commented on, serving as my Poe's beating heart under the floor boards.

I thought if I would tell the story an analogy to our current situation would come to me, even if it was a stretch, would come to me, but it hasn't.

But now I remember why I was retelling the story - after work I stopped by my ex's house and was throwing football and lacrosse with my son and she was using one of these ball throwing boomerrang sticks to throw ball to our dogs, and she thought it was funny to try and hit me - assured in the knowledge she had never thrown the ball anywhere close to where she has ever aimed - and she ended up hitting me in the thigh, just 6" away from the jewels, at a very high velocity.  It was like getting hit with a paint ball - it hurt.  

So, I guess the takeaway may be  - be prepared for inadvertent success and it's consequences.