Catskills - Sullivan County - Ulster County Real Estate -- Catskill Farms Journal

Lulu,  my dog on the left, has a new friend, Izzy, on the right.   They play and play and play and play.  Lots of growling, running, rolling, nipping, chasing and fetching.

This home, ranch 36 in Kerhonkson, just went into contract.  We are just plugging along, staying in our lane, cautious but assured that we have a product that has sold in many different types of economic environments, and assured to know our margins are big enough that if we need to squeeze them, we can.  The same can't be said for most of our competitors, who can only exist in a boom-boom economy, because their prices are - by any historic measure - high.  We actually been able to raise our prices because of their lead, even with some skepticism of how long the party may last for them.

Funny byproduct of this pandemic is how much more time families are spending in their homes.   I mean, I guess it's not a secret, but one thing that makes our great homes awesome from a business plan vantage is how little they are used.  Take a home, put a fulltime family of 5 in them and all their friends and parties and get togethers - using each and every element and fixture and knob 12 times a day- , and watch how quickly the home has issues.  Our homes are used lightly, maybe 9 days a month, and a lot of families keep them in museum condition, so the warranty obligations and wear and tear on the home is just less.

But interestingly, now with families just camped out at their homes for a month plus, dealing with all sorts of emotions - boredom, sadness, crankiness, cabin fever, productiveness - we are getting a ton of emails from clients about this and that on their homes.  They aren't wrong - but frankly, it's more of a pivot of their use, and a perception of priorities, that is driving the warranty claims and house questions, not any increased or decreased quality of the home.  People are in their homes, bored, so why not write the builder!?  I get it, we are cataloging and will attack as necessary when the 'stay home' order is lifted.

Which brings me to my biggest spur in my saddle about this whole stay at home order.  Seriously, why is fast food open?  How can that be considered essential?

First, it's unhealthy from a purely nutritional vantage.

Two, from a virus spreading vantage, what could be worse than having the same cashier, and then the same food distributor touching the money, exchanging the germs, with the hundreds of people per hour that come through the pickup window?  From what I've seen, no gloves, no protocol after each diner, just business as usual with maybe now a glass partition and an ill-fitting mask.

How you can argue fast food is essential and not dangerous, but single family non-urban residential construction somehow threatens us all?  let me see here, fast food deals with hundreds of people per hour, single family construction is lightly staffed, lots of space, typically pretty solitary, and a lot of times outdoors?

Single Family residential construction is well-paid is well paid and provides the lifeblood of many families, yet here we have an industry (fast food) that is allowed to continue that barely pays a living wage, serves crap food, and has every opportunity to spread the virus (think of one server with the virus) vs well-paid, non-public facing hardworking tradesmen?  it's stupid, and it sort of pisses me off, and makes me wonder what type of game Gov Cuomo is playing, since he has always been serving some well-heeled master in the past.  He's smarter than this.

Happy Easter - here are some bible verses for the day courtesy of - wait for it - Country Living Magazine -
https://www.countryliving.com/life/a30705567/easter-bible-verses/

Yesterday, the sound and shrieks of sirens abounded.  It was frightening and LOUD, much louder than your typical emergency response.  Turns out, it was the Easter Bunny making her rounds on the 6 truck convoy.  Now, I may be just an old fuddy duddy, but shrieking sirens when everyones' nerves are on edge is not my idea of a party, though I appreciate the gesture.  I don't think most people knew what was happening so 'major emergency' was the primary thought.

So, I'm at an interesting juncture of my business journey to watch this virus calamity ooze through the economy and fabric of American life.  1, I'm not directly impacted on day 1 so I have some distance and hence some clarity, 2, I run a $8m / business so I have some sort of financial sophisticated lens to view this from, 3, I'm a student of both history and economic history, so I'm well-versed in panics and downtowns and how they play out, 4, I'm a student of small business, and know the terrain on which these companies tread very well.

First, wow, how can you group a $45k revenue business with no employees with a company that has 499 employees?  There is just nothing in common.   I don't who defines small business as companies with less than 500 employees, but I certainly don't.  I don't see how the same 1 trick pony works for both groups.

Two, I applied for the PPP with the help of a local bank.   We are not in dire straits like many companies, but at some point we will be impacted.  Because our production schedule is lengthy, our impact will probably be felt in September, when the homes we would be starting or progressing on now would be hitting the market or selling - and the only litmus test was a self-certification that your business suffered 'harm' - I mean, really, few businesses didn't.  But applying for it made it apparent how poorly thought out it was.  Sure, I get the idea that help was needed fast, but as I read through the program, it just feels the only way to get it through quick without ideological roadblocks was just to include everyone (applies to the unemployment program too).

Then add on top of it an administration who made it a point to hollow out the expertise of every department of the government, and somehow they are going to be able to administer this program just made very little sense.  I'm amazed at a lot of businesses really think this money is coming, coming quick, and without too many strings.   That's not me.  If I actually get the forgivable loan, I''ll put it in a CD for 6 months until the government actually starts forgiving the loans, because why would you trust a President to look out for small guy and live up to his word when he made his billions by not paying people, and especially not paying the exact small businesses getting this aid.  So it wouldn't surprise me to see the rules change mid-way through the game, after all these business received and spent the money, to find out the loans actually come with a lot more strings than first mentioned, and hey, pay it back - you can't expect your fellow americans to pay your debts.  Who really has a hard time believing that isn't at least a possible scenario here?

The real problem I believe is that this administration just isn't honest - so they say the tests are coming, and they don't.  They say the stimulus checks are coming, but they don't.  They say the SBA will process the loans the same day, and they don't.   What we all need is a sense of getting a firm footing, not this sifting sand approach.  It might work in politics, but it doesn't work in business, where hard facts and data (along with the hard-earned gut instincts of the businessperson) drive decision making, and where an approach that strays from that - where optimism and wishful thinking overshadow the facts on the ground - well, that has never proven to be a profitable or safe route.  Acknowledging the reality of the situation, and planning and strategizing around it is the only way, painful as it may be.

I guess, since we were on a 9 year economic expansion, many businesspeople have never faced the real headwinds that aren't in their control - sure, all businesses fight for client acquisition, navigate employee drama, struggle with their cash flow - but these decisions are made easier when there is plenty of money circulating in the economy.  Now, take away an 'awash in cash' economy, and put that on your sandwich and eat it.  It's a lot harder, for the primary reason is, it's not nearly as fun to contract and protect and play defense as spend spend spend and brag all about it.

Anyone can look good in a strong and healthy economy.   You see who really understands the nature of effort and risk and perseverance when things get hairy.  Or as the dangerous book for boys instructs - "Don't Grumble.  Plug On."   Easier said than done for those who haven't faced much hardship.

Playstation 2K (basketball game) against my son where I shot an abysmal 17% and lost by 6, Homeschool, few phone calls, did some work, Toy Story 4, nap, AND ITS ONLY 3:30!!!.

I'm on this new weird food fetish - crackers with jam on them, but the jam is out of this ketchup-like container that had been in the deep recesses of my pantry, discovered anew with all the time I have on my hands.

Tomorrow, we knock out the 3rd home in our 6 home sales sprint.  A farmhouse in kerhonkson on 5 acres that we've been working on for 6 months.

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Luckily, when this Virus hit, we were on the tail end of a slew of homes.  With us, we have production cycles where our balance sheet puffs up with a build out of our assets (homes under construction) and a ballooning of our liabilities (debt used to buy materials and labor to build the homes), and then an airing out of said ballooning as we sell the houses and then it starts all over again.  it's a cycle, buy a bunch of land, build a bunch of homes, sell a bunch of homes, repeat.

Just so happened we were at the near end of one these cycles with 2 homes in Narrowsburg and 3 homes in Kerhonkson nearing completion as the virus confinement hit.  Far enough along that we could keep pushing them forward through the punchlists, etc...  Fortunately, they were in the woods so even a nit-picky building inspector who was taking the Governors lockdown at face value would have to come looking for us.  I have a big problem with closing down non-urban, residential, single family construction - it makes no sense, especially when compared with the horror of fast food - where a single team of low paid workers prepare and hand out thousands of meals a day, so if there was someone infected it would spread relentlessly.

So here you have an industry with high wage bread winner/earners, many times outdoors, low density with the employment and health of literally millions of people - and they aren't supposed to work, but then McDonalds, Burger Kings and Roy Rogers can stay open because they have a drive through window.   It's just illogical, and makes me feel fine about decisions to keep our show moving forward.

What's happening on a business front is we are concentrating on the homes we need to close, so I can get paid and the clients can have their homes.  What we aren't doing is working much on homes that weren't that far along, say sheetrock or prior, so that leaves 6 homes sitting out there waiting for us.

Work out routine.
But, making lemonade out of this lemon is what I'm doing, and finding ways to pivot our energies.  One, to rest since I've been driving my team hard for over a year now.  Two, to let the cash flow catch and the dust settle, so we can for once actually see what we have - it's always in one door, out the other.  3, we are moving our offices, so this takes the pressure of everything having to happen precisely on one or two days since, hey, tomorrow is just like today anymore.

There's a bunch of things I'm doing, and it should all position us well for the future.  Mostly, I'm thinking, thinking about neglected projects, thinking about what the next 6 months look like, thinking about what I want this business to look like over the next 5 years.

postscript - you know you are skating on thin ice when you go to shoot some hoops at 4pm with your kid, and you can't get the door open because you haven't been outside at all yet!

I think I have a crush on

Alisyn Camerota from CNN.

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Few observations -

I'm wearing a mask when I go out.  I'll probably paint lips and a tongue on it, just for kicks.  One has to wonder how long it will be till the NYTimes runs a fashion article about different mask makeups.

For some reason, while my grocery store's shelve are alarmingly getting less filled across a broad array of items, clam chowder this week seemed to be holding it's own.  Whereas, Campbells Tomato soup, which i was listing as strangely available, was gone this week, and lord have mercy, I had to go off-brand, which I have never done.

A lot of people are walking their dogs.  Dogs are getting more walks, getting more attention, than ever before as people stay home and look for something to do.  I noticed while walking my little 1 mile loop, which is typically solitary, all sorts of new dogs and people.  Happy days are here again for the canines.

I feel retired, trying to fill my days, which I'm doing pretty well.  The key seems to be to acknowledge a few realities.  1, you aren't going to be as productive, so accept it.  2, because of the lack of travel, commuting, errands, sports, kids activities, etc..., the days are longer, and take more 'effort' to fill. 3, to survive the time, you have to reinvent, with an acceptance of downtime, acceptance of a slowdown and redefine the auto-response of 'busy' to define a successful life to something unAmerican like 'satisfied, bored, and sitting quietly'.  It's as much as a mental pivot as a physical one, and for Americans, not necessarily the worst thing ever for a gogo culture.

Noted a very strange and counterintuitive development, that being a real halt to my online shopping.  For months or longer I've been annoyed at the frequent one click shopping, with little or no real budget or thought of real necessity.  I mean, it's a continuation of the day to day bounce from 100 other activities that the purchases while not unnecessary or desired, happened as a 'check that off the list' routine among 100 others, but when you got the credit card statement it was an 'ugh' moment with half the things hardly touched (like my 32 piece sketch and drawing portfolio set or my 8' extension arm to hang Christmas lights on trees in my yard, to unfairly single out two).  But low and behold, since I've been hangin' at home, you'd think the shopping would fill some of the void, but it seems that reducing consumerism in one direction (physical), sort of reduces it across the board.  Sure, I'm still buying stuff (like my new toaster, which resulted in eating a lot more bread), but not big ticket items, and not at the rate one would guess with all the time I have on my hands.

Which makes me wonder how many people and families will take away from this isolation a new set of priorities and realizations about what they thought they needed in their lives and what they actually do need.  I'm just wondering if for some people, the awareness of 'buying whatever, whenever' was bringing less joy than may appear, may pivot and just consume less for the foreseeable future once this is over - like once off the roller coaster of 'buy this, buy this now amazon culture', it's easier to stay off.

I find my days go 1 of two ways - they are either lightly structured, moving through breakfast, tasks, dog walks, kitchen cleanups, work tasks, exercise, etc... or they aren't, and I barely shower, do my hair and accomplish much of anything.  Even the former is done at a slow pace, but like a retiree, it has the form of structure, so what I'm finding is while you have to give yourself a break in comparing it in anyway to what was being done prior to the outbreak, a semblance of structure and routine goes a long way.

Otherwise, you get caught in the loop I did the other day, when I finally turned off CNN and found myself somewhat entertained watching daytime TV shows like Ellen, PD Live (Cops spinoff) and a few others too shameful to mention.

Even if you do fill your days, there is too much day to fill, so I'm getting a lot of movies in - Lately "Lord of the Flies", 1963 version, 'Of Mice and Men', John Malkovich, 1992, "Lawrence of Arabia", "The Favourite", "Dumb and Dumber', "Dumb and Dumber To", "Ground Hog Day", you get the picture.  It's embarrassing in a vague way to know my bookkeeper is seeing all these purchases.

I call this picture below "Dog sitting on a new stone wall on a Friday evening c. Happy Hour"

I'm doing a lot of watching and waiting.  Waiting for my wildflowers to grow I planted last fall, waiting for the leaves to bud, waiting for grass to grow.  No rush though, I got nothing planned or pressing.