Catskills - Sullivan County - Ulster County Real Estate -- Catskill Farms Journal

This home marries both the barn and the farmhouse idea, with a pretty classic front elevation and loft interior.  It was a gradual and years long evolution from a much smaller cottage people liked.  Sold last Friday to a client that has been with us from the beginning of the project.  3 bedrooms, 3 baths and 1800 sq ft, plus a killer large basement that can be built out over time.

There is a debate raging, a conversation taking place, about what the virus means to the Catskills housing and business environment.

Over and over again I hear about how glory days are here again as soon as the yellow caution flag is lifted, that both the local construction industry and the clients that support them are just sitting around revving their engines, ready to get back to business as usual, Engines revving and waiting.

The argument being used revolves around the post 9/11 surge the Hudson Valley saw in real estate, as people fled to safety.  The more I hear people talk about - and it really is the prevailing sentiment - the more I tend to be convinced, even though I don't believe it, if it's possible to have both those ideas/beliefs living together in the same home (my brain - believe me, anything is possible up there in those nether regions).  Families will seek the safety of the Catskills as the City becomes scarier.  It's a reasonable argument on the surface, if safety is the only input.  A lot of my daily conversations are with businesses that really need it to be true, so there is the real danger there that 'hope' is clouding 'facts'.

And personally, I fear the facts are in contradiction to this sentiment.  Primarily, this pandemic has permeated NYC and surrounding areas in a way that neither 9/11 or the financial crisis did. Most people who buy our homes are not bankers and finance people - they are musicians, chefs, bar owners, shoe store owners.  Many people who buy in the Catskills are being directly impacted by this shutdown.  Do I think Catskill Farms will continue to find a dozen buyers a year?  Yes.  Do I think the larger real estate environment up here will be impacted negatively?  Yes.

I think quite a few people/families who bought homes up here over the last 5 year - using AirBnb to hedge their bets and expenses - might end up losing their homes, but because of forbearance and other tricks this won't be evident right away.  This will have the 'positive' impact of freeing up more inventory, and subsequently reducing prices, which had gotten a little heady.

I think town offices - planning boards, building departments, health departments, town boards - will be so backed up when this lets up, if it lets up, that there will be a built in delay to any rebound as these people struggle through the backlog of permits and inspections.

Towns and Counties are going to get crushed by the lack of real estate transfer tax, sales tax, building fees, and the thousands of other revenue streams that are being decimated currently and for the foreseeable future.

4th, a lot of the reason people come to the Catskill is Community (with a capital C).  Getting together, doing small town things, dinner parties, festivals, concerts restaurants, parks, hiking.  What are the Catskills if you are prohibited from partaking in the essence of the Catskills.  Still has value, but much reduced.

5th, most of the small business community that make up the main streets of Narrowsburg, Callicoon, Woodstock, Rhinebeck, Saugerties, etc... are not in position to weather this cashflow storm, or if they do limp through, they are in no position to robustly restart and reinvest when this is over.  From a cash flow standpoint, it literally is like starting over.

6th, realtors can't even show homes, and when they can it will be different and less effective, and slower.  And sellers will be scared to have people in their homes.

And Ultimately, the new Catskills exist because a swagger and confidence that puts it on par with Napa Valley, Austin, Nashville and a lot of other very desirable areas - though I would argue with the deep bench of replacement players.  So when a long established business shutters, or a newly established business never takes root, the impact is real.

3 short months ago, my thought about the Catskills was that while it will never be wholly secure, a lot of the financial and personal talent invested over the last 10 years seem to have positioned us in a way that was a permanent step/advance forward, that even a step back would leave us many steps ahead (and that's new - before, recessions stole most progress) - and then here we have this black swan event that caught people unawares while they were doubling down in a go-go economic environment that looked to have long legs.

I guess the one argument I heard yesterday made some sense - that if you back up enough, you could see a whole new approach to living, where people who live in the city and play in the country, end up parking their families up here and traveling back and forth to the city.  this would make sense if 'social distancing' continues, because being cooped up in a tiny apartment with no parks and playgrounds would motivate families to make decisions and choices they never thought they'd be making.  While that may produce a vibrant construction and real estate environment, the pivot would be dramatic and painful and disruptive.

And I guess that's the thing we will all be coming to terms with as we make our way to Acceptance - challenging and changing the way we thought life was going to be.  A very tough ask for most of the upper middle class and above families who thought they had life by the tail.

It took Lulu, a very respective dog, years to make this move from the dog bed, to the chair, to the lower regions of the bed, to the upper section.

Here she is watching a solitary squirrel with seemingly no friends who has been hanging around every day trying to figure out how to access the bird feeders I hung.

Resiliency in this new normal.  Personal and professional.  It's hard to believe that life is just different now, and the idea that in some day in the near future we will all be crowded together again at kids' events, or professional sporting or arts events, or at museums, or live music just seems like a fantasy.  And that's really hard to get my head around.

As we work our way through the 7 phases of grief, I know I haven't even made it through the first 3 - shock, denial, anger  - and can't even fathom 'acceptance'.  A sadness pervades for all that has been lost, and as I watch my young son, it's hard not to be outraged at what has been yanked from his life experience.

It's been a long time since I haven't felt I mostly controlled my destiny, but here we are, in a struggle that seems intent on zapping some of the spice out of life.  Sure, we will all get on, but what will it look like, feel like?  There are some scenarios where life returns to normal quickly (really, just one - a miracle vaccine produced at huge volumes), but just as likely is a long slog of plugging on, without all the highlights of culture, gatherings and celebrations.

One thing that is true is that more than ever, life is about home, both the physical home and the emotional escape and safety of 'home'.  I've often said 'home' is best defined for our busy accomplished harried client as 'respite', and never is that more true than now.  Stay safe (and if you are picking up woodworking to pass the time, mind those fingers!)

Chuck

"Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old."

Home showcase videos we are working on -
https://vimeo.com/showcase/catskillfarmshomes

(youtube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVjkKYXNzVg5XBuxH_2J4dQ. - if we get to 100 subscribers we get to customize our channel url.)

We aren't a small company anymore.  We have a ton of obligations.  To our employees.  To our clients.  To our vendors.  The web of people and families and businesses that depend on us is really, not to exaggerate, is gigantic.

As the top, the owner, of a very non-top heavy organization, heavy lies the crown.  I'm in charge of the navigation.

So, we sail on, through the choppy seas.  At this point, beside our physical assets, and our intellectual property, and our top-tier employees, what gives us our most confident buoyancy is the depth of our relationships across a broad array of industries - banking, engineering, surveying, legal, accounting, financial planning.  These things don't matter - really just rather routine - until they do matter, and you do need to test the depth of experience of your team.  And when you find what you use on a daily basis to keep the motor turning is just the superficial surface of what they can offer, then, then you know you've got the team.

So, I hate to use the word 'fun', but it is something like 'fun', to see a path forward in the fog of this virus.  A path for my team, a path for our clients, a path for the interdependence of our process.

And I think it's called Value.  A Value born of 2 decades of concentration, hard work and dedication to providing the best we can.  Those are our roots and from those we return in these choppy waters.

Head down, clear eyed, no tricks or glossy oversold marketing.  Provide value, stick to your lane, and call on those relationships that we have built when the weather was clear.

We are selling homes.  2 in March.  3 in April.  2 more in May.  Signing contracts, making deals.   Made possible by our Value, but also our Team.  How many homeowners who built a house over the last 5 years won't have a builder to call when this is all over cause the company didn't survive?

Seems like we will be here.  Maybe a little hobbled, maybe with some tattered trousers or bullet-hole scarred jacket and a little emaciated, but my money is bet that we will be here, building homes, and putting people in them.  And if the past reflects the future, we may just end up stronger than before, with another notch in our belt for survival, like we did after 9/11, or the Great Recession, or a hundred smaller challenges we've faced daily over the last 20 years.

Dear Catskill Farms Clients, Fans, Followers and Admirers,

Without a doubt, the collection of families that are acquainted and supporters of Catskill Farms are a talented and unique bunch. Resilient, creative, smart, and hard-working. And interestingly, from what I’ve observed over the last 20 years, many times oddly insulated from these economic and social disruptions. I saw it after 9/11, I saw it during the Great Recession, and I’m seeing it now during this pandemic.

Assuredly, there is a lot of wide-spread distress out there. But there are many pockets of families and professionals that haven’t been impacted much if at all – and many of us who are lucky enough not to be impacted, are at the same time spending less money than we ever thought imaginable.

If you’ve been lightly touched by these events, and you find $1200/$2400+ from the Federal Government in your mailbox, consider donating it to one of the many non-profits that are being decimated by a reduction in donations.  One of my favorites is this equine therapy place in Milford PA -GAIT

Stay Well,

Chuck Petersheim

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