Catskills - Sullivan County - Ulster County Real Estate -- Catskill Farms Journal

Like a good Agatha Christie mystery (anyone ever see 1944 academy award nominee Gaslight, Angela Landsbury's first role at 19?) or a Sherlock Holmes yarn, the bird feeder drama took a turn towards clarification.  It was a bear.  How do I know?  First, I was confused at how the bird feeder didn't shatter as it hit the concrete porch - by the laws of physics, and it's construction makeup, it certainly should have.  2nd, there wasn't a seed from the spill anywhere to be found on the ground, and while certainly I could imagine Mr Squirrel and his friends and assorted birds making quick work of the spill, not quicker than I would have noticed the increase in activity since all I really do these days is sit in my man chair reading and watching the bird feeders.

So, 3 evening past, I was sitting here in my well-worn chair, reading, when from the corner of my eye some new shape enters peripherally.  It's funny how the brain works - it works backwards from what is most probable, most familiar, rules them out by process of elimination and continues paging through other scenarios.  So, in this millisecond, I went from bird, child, gardener, neighbor to looking over, 7' away through glass, to see a momma bear with one little cub the size of a soccer ball.  Literally the cub most have been on his first life excursion. Momma is reared up, paws to the bird feeder.  Fumbling for my phone, yelling for lucas, the bear senses danger and meanders off.

So, I owe the Amish bird feeder maker an apology.  It wasn't his craftsmanship.  The bear literally reached up, delicately put two paws on the bird feeder, gave a quick tug, broke the rope, put it on the ground and ate away.

So there's that.

Funny how putting a kid in a classic car with an American flag makes us seem like anti-mask wearing, social distancing denying, open now nincompoops, but we aren't.  We just love our country and the freedoms, be is speech, opportunity, religion, etc... that is part of This American Life.

I remember after the white supremacists invaded Charlottesville VA a few years back and my friend Bryan commented that it was embarrassing to buy tiki torches for his yard at Home Depot since the racists down there were using them in their marches - really sad the flag has the same ability to divide now.

There's also a pandemic explosion of urban flight looking for upstate properties.  I'm not usually as wrong as I was on this one, but any theory I had about depressed demand because of deep cuts this virus is making into the heart of NYC will need to wait, since for now, demand is off the charts.

News article we were quoted in -
http://www.westmilfordmessenger.com/news/local-news/pandemic-driven-house-frenzy-hits-local-towns-AL1159772

I'm still not all that certain for what the future holds, since it seems like a lot of the pain is being artificially delayed with Fed action, with mortgage forbearance action (as opposed to default), with federal stimulus, rent holidays and increased unemployment compensation levels.  But for now, you have a level of activity in an already busy marketplace I've never seen before.  And there is not a whole to sell, so if you are a seller, or thinking about selling, now is definitely the time.

This resale of Farm 33 in Rhinebeck is going into contract for nearly $1m, the largest increase over sales price ever recorded for a Catskill Farms home.


Barn 7 in Barryville went into contract in one week with multiple backup offers.


And Farm 19 in Narrowsburg survived on the market for 5 days before 2 full price offers came through.

The new Catskill Farms Ranch 37 home in Kerhonkson just went into contract.


And Catskill Farms put 3 homes into contract that aren't built yet.  I fended off another dozen clients with badly executed karate moves.

As someone who values competence, when I read things like the following it makes me sad and mad, not sure which emotion is more pronounced, since I confuse the two half the time, like any red-blooded emotionally challenged American male should -

"In the first six months of 1942, the [U.S.] government gave out more than $100 billion in military contracts, more than the entire gross national product of 1940. In the war years, American industry turned out 6,500 naval ves­sels; 296,400 airplanes; 86,330 tanks; 64,546 landing craft; 3.5 million jeeps, trucks, and personnel carriers; 53 million deadweight tons of cargo vessels; 12 million rifles, carbines, and machine guns; and 47 mil­lion tons of artillery shells, together with millions of tons of uniforms, boots, medical supplies, tents, and a thousand other items needed to fight a modern war.

"The Ford Motor Company alone produced more war matériel than the entire Italian economy. By 1944 its Willow Run plant was turning out B-24 bombers at the rate of one every sixty-three minutes. Henry J. Kaiser, who at first knew so little about ships that he referred to the front and the back instead of the bow and stern, brought the techniques of automobile mass production to shipbuilding. He reduced the time needed to build a liberty ship -- the standardized freighter of seventy-two hundred tons and thirty thousand parts -- from 244 days to 42. A total of 2,710 were produced during the war, each, in Roosevelt's words, 'a blow for the liberty of the free peoples of the world.'

And we can't even ramp up to produce virus tests in this day and age.

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There was an incident at the bird feeder.  The feeder, which fed an increasing array of birds of red, yellow, tufted and other, was found on the ground, seed spread wildly.  Was it a manufacturers defect - some Lancaster County Amish bird feeder maker who had a weak staple - or was it the squirrel, who day after day eyed it from an arts and crafts column edge, contemplating the length of the jump to the bird feeder?  did he finally make the leap, and was left hanging for his life by his claws on the feeder platform, little squirrel heart racing, his grip tiring, and falling, falling, falling - 5' down, a fall I'm sure he's done a hundred times.  If it was the squirrel, this successful brush with fate will certainly only embolden him, if he is anything like me.

The wreakage was breathtaking in its severity.  On closer examination, I was able to pop the sides back into position, reposition the hanging cord, and put it back into place.  I now watch warily for what may transpire.

I had a dilemma the other day, when toilet paper was still in short supply at the stores.  I had two rolls.  One a very nice triple ply, and another a coarse single ply of whose thin quality I hadn't encountered in a long while and really have no idea how it got into my home.  Anyways, it's allergy season and I go through a lot of tissue paper with nose blowing, so I had to choose which for the butt, and which for the nose.  I don't regret my choice - and it was similar to that of Sophie's - but after a few days of that cheap paper on my ass, I must have stopped by every grocery store, dollar general and grocery score before I found a new supply of the tri-ply.  The question that was logically posed to myself - late at night, when all is asleep and quiet and natural self-reflection creeps in- have I gotten that soft, or is that a fair thing to call a necessity?  When I evaluated my initial decision, i think it came down to which call of nature was going to be most frequent, thus most often quelled and assisted by paper tissue and by far that is the nose during allergy season.

It's busy in the Catskills.  It's funny how time is accelerated.  A week is an hour, a month is a day, in terms of new ways to live and rules around them.  The full brunt of the pandemic reaction is literally less than 7 weeks old and it's hard to imagine life prior.  That said, my initial relunctance to join the bandwagon of 'how robust the real estate market is going to be' has been wholly repudiated.   It's busy out there and our stuff is flying off the shelves.  Our resales across 3 counties, our homes started but not finished and people lining up for new homes.

So all looks really rosy and sure-fire for my company and the lane we occupy.  Which frankly, makes me really nervous, since there is no worst virus in economic life than the contagion of optimism.   I tiptoe forward, with my ear to the tracks, my wetted finger judging the wind, my tossed grass clippings hinting the way.  You may not need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, but you certainly need to think before you toss caution to the breeze in this environment.  It could be the classic trap, the trap that catches every real estate speculator at least once in their career.

A life in real estate is like riding a motorcycle.   There are two types of ridings.  Those that have wrecked, and those that will.   Same has been said about real estate speculators.   There are those who have gone belly up at least once, and there are those that will.

At age 50, this might be my last economic cycle, and the last thing I want to do is digging myself out for the next decade of some overconfident doubling down.

Now, mind you.  I'm definitely doubling down.  I always double down.  That's my nature.  I just won't be over-confident doing it, and I'll be keeping my eyes on the exit routes when possible.

When the virus lockdowns began, or as the restrictions trickled in, my main concerns were 2 fold.  How to plan for the future, and how to finish the 5 homes we had under construction that were more than 80% done?  What 'more than 80% done' means to my business model is that I'm fully invested, cash in the game, debt levels elevated, etc..., and the ultimate sale rectifies that.

Now, compared to many people who do what I do - though to be honest, it's no one local since the organizational and banking wherewithal exceeds what is out there and available - I keep pretty conservative debt levels, for the risky business I'm in.  My bank lends based on progress, and it barely lends enough to cover the cost of the home (not complaining) meaning the thousand other costs are being paid for by sales and cash flow.  I have a lot of my own money in the game as well as a somewhat safe investment with a decent return - I charge Catskill Farms a little more than the bank, but what's a few hundred basis points among friends.

Anyways, regardless of whose money it is, it would not have been fun to be sitting on $3.6m of nearly completed real estate.  That would lead to intemperate outbursts and short fuses and a general 'sky is falling' overreaction to any day to day issues we have every day.

We also had 4 homes $425k+ on our lazy meadows real estate side go into contract, or sell during this time.

Long story short, with the closing of Barn 35 yesterday, mission accomplished.  No easy feat navigating this brave new world with $3m+ and 12 employees and 14 clients and dozens of subcontractors chirping at the nest for feed, but navigate it we did.  Navigated the building departments (4 of them), the health departments (2 of them), the banks, appraisers, home inspectors, radon installers, spring mud/rain.  Literally dozens of players, each impacted and interpreting the evolving state rules being handed down each day.

So, really, a gigantic shoutout to all these folks for finding a way to help us tip toe along to the finish line.  I know the reason we got it done is because I'm a very forward-looking person, don't tend to get caught on my heels, tend to think many eventualities out with a clear view of probability of each, and have awesome employees and banking and vendor and municipal relationships that count for everything when shit hits the fan.  Everyone thinks they have a good team until put to the real test, which is not when the economy is perfect and people are begging for product.  It's when shit gets real messed up, and you need to have targeted action and you need it done how you want it done, when you want it done so you can inch along, like a blind person with his stick, or how you use your feet to survey the ground in front of you when walking in the dark.

I like challenging times.  It continually proves who we are as a company.  I could've have done without the pandemic, though, and would have settled for a good old fashioned credit crunch stock market correction that knocked all my over-leveraged competitors on their ass, but hey, you can't always get what you want.

Was at the grocery store, where the line to checkout stretched back an entire aisle.  It was clear that while it was orderly, it wouldn't have taken much for complete order to break down and panic to set in.  Panic is just under the surface.

Of course, when you are standing in a line that stretches down a whole aisle, and that aisle happens to be the treats and snacks aisle, and you are hungry, you end up with purchases like the Oatmeal Creme Pie 12 pack.  Turns out, they are a lot smaller than they used to be, and when i couldn't stop eating them, I threw the rest of the box away, but I didn't just throw the individually wrapped pies away since there was no way for sure to guarantee I wouldn't go dumpster diving for them later, I unwrapped the 5 remaining before tossing them in the garbage can.

It reminds me of when I used to smoke and couldn't quit (long time ago) - I'd buy a pack, and then throw the rest in the garbage, but would invariably go back and fish them out, even if I took the time to break them in half.  Only way to ensure no fishing was to ruin them by pouring water into the pack, or throwing the whole god damned pack out a moving vehicle, which wasn't even fail-safe since I could go back looking for them if not too far away.  Addiction, glad the only ones I have left are less harmful.

I also ended up with Doritos, Gatorade 12 pack, and a few other notables.

I didn't know bird watching was cliche, but appears Im not the only one sitting around watching birds, researching their type, and naming them.  This red bird's name evovled from 'Red' to "Lipstick'. The bird feeders have really become a hit after a slow start.  I seem to have 3 or four types of birds -

Red, or Lipstick for the Cardinal

Tufty, or Mullet for the Tufted Titmouse

Sunny for the yellow one.

Nutty, for the white breasted nuthatch.

This Lilienthal Berlin watch was really impulsive, which was interesting primarily for 3 reasons.  1, I don't wear watches, 2, I've been on the down slope random consumerism, 3, the instagram ad targeted me precisely.

Talk about big data nailing me.   The style, price, need, etc... hit me I guess where I was most susceptible, and now I'm a watch wearer.  While I'm not totally excited about being profiled like this, since they nailed it, I'm ok with it.  I've actually noticed the ads and catalogs I've been served  & mailed lately have been been pretty right on, which I respect, since it must mean that my consumer interests have been refined, curated, and now have a specific identifying trait, which I like to name Tasteful, Restrained, Expensive but not too, Discretionary but Not Dumb, aka TRENDD.  Wow, an acronym without even trying - most times you have to turn yourself in knots to get it to work.

I have noticed now that it doesn't have a light, is not glow in the dark and doesn't show the date.

After I got my new toaster - see previous posts - I started eating a lot of toast.  Which I like with butter and jam, and I wondered why the jam tasted funny and about 3 weeks in looks like my 'jam' was actually sunday topping, sugar free no less.  My ex always says, in moments like this, 'and how did you become a millionaire?" or "and how do you run a $10m company?"  It's a fair point which I ask at times too.

Was out on Luxton Lake Road yesterday, and had to stop by and take a picture of this 2009 beauty we built.  Just a great house.   Less than 1000 sq ft originally, then expanded with the build out of the basement.

And a mini-barn going up in Narrowsburg.