NY Philharmonic
Opening night at the NY Philharmonic at Geffen Hall at Lincoln Center- its 183rd year or something like that. Prime seats in a home crowd of philharmonic fanatics, few tourists to be found. I found it a little confusing when to clap or not but following the crowd was easy to do. Having never seen a professional orchestra for 2+ hours it was fascinating to watch the hard work of the 100+ member ensemble. Some were working hard the whole time - the small strings and the like, and others joined for just a note or so like the harp, gigantic drum, etc... Interestingly, the ability to see the musicians detracted from the music they were making and the eyes diluted the ears, so with eyes closed, the large nuanced sound of the band was intense. Forgot my cuff links and had to have a pair delivered to the hotel, which is of course old hat to much people but a new idea for us country bumpkins.
Sunk Cost (fallacy) and Steve Cohen
I work with a lot of money. Money comes in, money goes out. Upwards of $1.5m a month. It's a rapid fire cash flow environment, where solid and up-to-date book-keeping and payable processes guides the way. Gotta know where you stand at all times.
But even though I'm a personal financial literacy advocate, and fanatic, I still can step away from myself and watch the same emotional struggles about the best use of money, and none more dangerous than the Sunk Cost experience. Sunk costs are defined as money and time and energy expended on a project, initiative, idea or business - money you have in it. It can't be changed. You already spent it. Sunk Cost Fallacy revolves around the human brain reluctance to pivot away from an initiative that you have measurable time and money invested- chasing the dragon some more in hopes of recouping the loss, further aggravating the loss. Happens with stocks when they decline and you know you holding a loser - the disinclination to sell it is emotional, not mathematical. The hope is that some variable or factor will change that will allow you to recoup and perhaps even gain some ROI.
Problem is, many times you just don't know. Success or momentum could be just around the corner. Perseverance is the mantra of any endeavor, especially entrepreneurial, and I guess that's what separates the ultimate winners and losers in the game of business, especially small business where resources are always scarce - those that can clearly identify losing paths that being traveled, and pivot away, quickly, stemming the bleeding at the first opportunity, instead of chasing the loss.
One thing the pandemic did was allow many businesses to make tough financial decisions under the cover of the pandemic, without judgment, with the ability to blame someone/something other than themselves. Culling employees, shutting divisions, selling off poorly performing assets. I bought a $5m project for $200,000 that the owners had held for 15 years hoping something in their luck would change. I still credit the pandemic with two things - increased skill of leadership since it brought challenges never seen before that needed action now, and the ability of businesses to streamline their operations with no repercussions from stockholders or community. Tough decisions that wouldn't fly normally became commonplace, and businesses became more efficient, lean and strategic and most importantly, focused. The pandemic forced a focus for survival, and most benefited from the concentrated and concerted return/attention to the basics. The counterintuitive thing is the NYC money manager who took a $4m haircut when he sold me the project for $200k never looked back, strengthened his focus, and is stronger than ever. Chasing losers takes a lot of energy and resources.
I had to confront a personal (business) sunk cost situation recently, with a 6 figure partner to dance with. But in the end, I beat back the emotions, looked at as a math and business problem, and discarded the problem with a stroke of my pen.
Then pulled a hedge-fund guru Steve Cohen, where after he paid a few billion dollars to the US Gov't to settle his problems, just to flex, he went on a spending spree showing up in headlines of art auctions and then ultimately bought the Mets.
I'm doing a little of that, with the pursuit of a new 30 acre subdivision in Kerhonkson, a long vacation in Costa Rica, and the addition of a new multi-play room and new garage at my abode. The new play room sports a ping pong table, electronic dart board, and a killer home theater with a sound system that blows the doors off.
And some shelves to show off my 85 piece typewriter collection.
Got one closing done yesterday and another one set for Monday.
I wonder if any of these lines of homes will ever reach 100. Time is running out for this generation.
End of Summer...
Well, with temps in the mid-40's, like clockwork, summer is winding down (note play on words - clockwork...winding down). Then up into the 70's. In the convertible yesterday afternoon, it even called for a sweater.
We have a big sale today, and another in 7 days, and then another in 60 days. That will leave us with 4 spec homes next year to sell that are already built or nearly completion. Gives me lots of latitude to change directions.
Friday night lights. The booster club just bought a canon and now half the dads are down there blasting away.
Lucas is getting in the habit of inviting people over, and before I know it half the football team is sleeping over, with kids sleeping everywhere from the media room, to the screened porch, to my living room couches. Good kids though. As I tell Lucas, Lulu the dog gets a lot of privileges and a long leash (I know, too clever by half), and the way to get treated the same is to be well-behaved. It's probably weird for the kids seeing a single dad flex with pancakes, house work, dinners and the like. I'm sure the Moms drive the show in most of their households and the dads have a different role altogether.
We really suck this year on the baseball diamond, after winning the championship 2 years in a row. Errors galore and quiet bats.
I'm always tinkering around my house with this and that project - if you can call converting the existing 2 car garage into a large man-cave with ping pong, theater grade TV area, and an electronic dart board. This week will be the finish line.
I live in Milford PA, a cool town, with a fastidious block road grid and lots of charm.
Lulu has lots of perches she hangs out on. She likes how the bluestone heats up on a sunny day.
Jared Covit's all up in arms over the photo I cut and pasted from the internet, threatening this and that. You'd have to wonder how many baseless causes of action he would file before learning a lesson.
I'm rereading Killer Angels, a Michael Shaara historical fiction account of the Battle of Gettysburg and listening to a true crime audio book on the Murdaugh family in South Carolina. Killer Angels, written in 1974, places the disastrous battle for the confederacy squarely on the lap of General Lee, who seems, in this book, to be engaging in this battle in order to bring the war to a close - win or lose.
Cottage 45 ReSale
Cottage 45, with the post-sale addition of an artists studio and a lot of good looking landscaping, is being resold after who knows how many years of graceful living - is it 10? Hard to say without digging deep into the archives. But it's been awhile. Asking $650+/-, we sold it for low $300's. It's on an amazing piece of land that fronts a large creek/stream. On 12 acres. It's such a snapshot of how hard we used to work for how little money, perfecting our craft, making a living. And then wham, pandemic fueled NYC migration to the Catskills, and we were able to monetize it, since we had the team and the engine all tuned up.
I forgot how busy we actually got, since it's been 4 years and it's hard to remember that it hasn't always been this way. Well, in some ways it has, since even though we were building less, our team was capable of less. Now our team is capable of more, and we are building more. And soon, we will be building less, but our team is capable of more, which will present some difficult man-power decisions.
I hope they get their price. Looking at what's available in Barryville for between $450k - $650k, and this house is definitely the most attractive of the lot. When we started building cottages in 2006, the idea was to provide a lower cost option of getaways without sacrificing land quality or build quality. Only way to do that is a smaller home, and some counterintuitive market ideas that there was a market for 2 bedroom homes. Ideas that formulated by talking with my perspective clients, and hearing what they were saying, many times they were unaware of market insights they were giving me. Talk to enough people, put in the time, ears perked and listening and before you know it, you have information others don't.
These long-held homes that hit the market gives me a lot of nostalgia for the journey of Catskill Farms. One thing that has been true, among many, is my uncompromising ability to find good land for good homes.
