The corner turns on the market

While I'm not sure what it means for us as a company, it's clear the upstate market has changed/evolved over the last 90 days. I'm seeing "New Price", "Drastic reduction" and similar verbiage all over the MLS. For us, we aren't seeing it quite yet, with a house a month going into contract, and on the other end a house we have completed selling, and a dozen or so under construction, and at least 3 homes we are building for others on our "Our Homes, Your Land" initiative, we are busy enough in the present day not to worry too much about what the future holds. With little debt, and sales of homes under construction and under contract numbering near a dozen, we are in a good position to keep doing our thing day by day.

But the winds are changing -and with our efficient team and lots of dry financial powder, the real risk of the coming slowdown will be to pounce on an ill-advised 'opportunity'. I know in previous posts I said I'm not seeing any risk of a recession, and on the ground - (measuring it by evaluating labor supply, inflation, and the schedule of our vendors I talk to daily, I'm still not seeing it) - I'm still not seeing any evidence of it, but with the macro actions of the fed doubling interest rates, I'm sure that can't help but slow things down. Which as I might have said, is not necessarily a bad thing - too many people and businesses have been too busy for too long, running their rpms up in the red zone since summer of 2000. Been a great time to make money, with a lot of businesses charging 2x+ times what they would normally charge - so on a micro level you can see the baby steps of inflation - yes, all the costs of production are up, but businesses have been able to charge for that AND add a bunch more onto the bill since there is so much cash swimming around the economy for what ever reason.

I scan a bunch of newspapers and websites each day - and I mean a bunch - and I've noticed over the last year or so a new type of click bait has emerged, typically headlined with something like "10 Trends that are over" and then go on to mention every single thing people did and do like in their homes - shades of grey, salvaged or distressed wood, open shelves, subway tile, etc.. Next I'm sure they will start mentioning 'shade trees', 'peace and quiet' and other nonsense.

Our project at The Crest in North Branch NY continues to move along, with a completed spec home just crossing the finish line. A 2100 sq ft Ranch style with views, a stream and 5 acres.

Selling in the high $600's, this is a good test of the market, since it's a fair price compared to other homes, but still a pretty penny.

Just finished making our traditional winter travel plans, - NYC a week or two prior to Xmas, skiing in Killington over Prez Day weekend, and then a trip to Big Sky for some skiing which is typically 3 days but stretching it to 4 days this year. Still need to figure out the week after Christmas.