Another month of another year in my life

I’m in Aspen. It was less than 2 weeks ago I was in St Petes.  A month before that Costa Rica, and a few weeks before that, Houston. Until I put it in writing, I forget I get around.  And when I think about it, it makes sense; I have a team that has a got handle on things, and I’m not getting longer.  In aging, while I may have 35 yrs left, the truth is you start to slow in the mid-60’s and by 70’s you may be active and healthy but you are definitely narrowing what you want and like to do. So, now is the time.

But 35 yrs looked at another way, from the power of compounding money you’ve saved, is a ton of time.  You read that Warren Buffet’s wealth grew from something impressive to something astonishing after he turned 65 - that’s not because his investment strategies got better - it’s because of the power of time and the math behind compounding, or what Buffett called the 8th Wonder of the World, is true and undeniable.  Whatever your growth rate, divide it into 72 and that’s your clock of doubling.  And anyone who’s ever fallen for that 3 card monte trick of taking a million dollars or 1 penny doubling for 30 days (example not meant to be accurate), understands what doubling means. 

It means $5m at 60, $10m at 70 (at a conservative 7% growth), $20m at 80, $40m at 90.

Or at 10%, $5m at 60, $10m at 67, $20m at 74, $40m at 81, $80m at 88, and $160m at 95.

Time, it turns out, matters more than size.  That’s why getting started early in investing is suggested when possible.  You put $30k away when you are under 30, and you can out earn someone who spends a lot more time putting more money away later for longer.

I’d like to know when Domino’s pizza got so expensive, and when they started charging for delivery.  A large pie, with tip, is pushing $30.  I haven’t ordered it for awhile but have twice in the last two months with the same shock.  And coffee - a cup of non-craft coffee used to be $1 like 3 years ago and now it’s $2.50.  Bagels with cream cheese $4. Fast food $12+ for a combo meal.  All these everyday items of convenience are actually expensive, insidious tax on everyday living. I’m sure it’s a lot more pervasive throughout the grocery store than my quick analysis.  

Trump putting institutional and private equity large-scale purchases of single family homes in his sites in a WSJ article. I’ve read differing accounts as to whether the impact is as impactful as the worrywarts claim and haven’t read the definitive analysis that proves one way or another that the large block purchases from these investors have caused inventory shortage and housing price inflation.  To me, it seems like tight inventory and higher prices exist even where private equity isn’t present like the NorthEast.  The other side of the argument revolves around the lack of homes being built over the last 15 years, due to onerous zoning and permitting.

I notice my best friend Lulu (my dog) is starting to get a little cranky in her old age - 13 yrs old- a little snippy with the kids, a little noise sensitive at construction sites.  I don’t know if I’m getting the same way but I have two pet peeves that are really getting under my skin - 1, there needs to be a public awareness campaign about using cell phone speakers, it’s becoming the norm that you just let your content roll out obnoxiously to the world (I know I’ve talked about this before) but I actually don’t think people know it’s rude - I think in some proportion of the situations, people just don’t realize you shouldn’t do it.  2nd, and this is fast becoming a real issue for me, is that people need to use their own restroom on a plane - economy has a restroom, biz/1st has a restroom - don’t come marching up front just cause it’s convenient.

I’m a pragmatic person so I wouldn’t be suggesting these campaigns without some reasonable belief that they are achievable. A little education, a little enforcement, a little public humiliation.

A great Willie Nelson article in the New Yorker recently.

It is sort of amazing with all the crazy weather, with all the hundreds of thousand of parts that go into each house, with all the room for human failings and shortcomings, how few and far between our warranty issues are- I mean, if we hear from a client once a month, that’s a lot.  It’s just a testament to a few things - 1, we are building good homes, with good materials. 2, our clients are reasonable, and 3, we take care of a lot of things early when people are just moving in so that keeps the issue from lingering or spreading.  But seriously, with all the winds and ice and rain and heat and dry -that’s a lot of stress on a home, and our homes stand up to it.   Looking at my profit and loss last year, we did $6m or so of homes, and the warranty costs to me for the year was $22,000 or so, and a lot of that was one big problem.  It’s a testament to why we’ve been around for 25 years, and why we sell a lot of homes, even if it feels messy up close and personal from the inside looking out.

I’m in Aspen, one of the many places that saw tremendous real estate appreciation over the last few years- same as Jersey Shore, LA, Telluride, Austin, Hamptons and a thousand other places.  I’m just not sure I understand where all the money came from- it sort of just came out of nowhere, printed, and now exists in the form of real estate appreciation.

It's been a bearded winter, not by design, just by negligence. My one eye and glasses seem to be permanently and independently crooked.